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Friday, April 30, 2010

Weekend Charts and Stuff [Update Sat 1:20AM]

[Update Sat 1:20AM:  It just dawned on me: The entire world is kiting checks.

(And for those who were raised in the age of the internet online billpay and CC plastic don't know what check kiting is )

But anyways, thats about the gist of our entire financial crisis in a nutshell.

[Update Friday 10:30 PM: Australia's real estate bubble will pop.  Price of the ASX is already below the high of October.]

[Update Friday 10PM: Earlier someone asked about the "1-2", "1-2" count and why and what it may mean. The end of day ended very bearishly as you can see on this NASDAQ count. Remember, the peak on Friday would have been a wave (ii) or [ii] wave peak and the move lower today was the front part of a power wave three down.

The waves support this speculation because the two major correctives up on Friday do not display the guideline of alternation.  They both appear to be zizgag corrections which are typical wave two-type corrections.

Also the end of the low may mean the "snap point" is close at hand. A huge gap down Monday would be the "third of a third" and the Head and Shoulder pattern would follow through in a wave three down.

Why would this happen? Well, big bear moves don't wait around for anyone to get in.  To gap down some 120 points in the DOW on Monday would be appropriate and not let anyone get an "easy" in and profit unless you held shorts through the weekend. Thats the way the MM's like to yank it around.

If the opposite happens and we get a bullish open, then indeed this would be a nice 5 wave down and then a corrective wave two Monday up would occur. But I like the big bear count. Why should we ponder a Head and Shoulder pattern as the market did last July? It would make sense to do something different this time and go "BAM" right down hard on Monday and leave everyone slack-jawed.

Guideline of alternation says this H&S pattern will resolve differently than the July 2009 pattern.  A big crap down Monday would be one possible surprising outcome.

The great thing is we'll know Monday prior to market open.  If this is a 1-2, 1-2 as described, it should gap down big Monday. If futures are way up Monday, then we know the 1-2, 1-2 cannot be the case. Yes obvious, but pattern recognition first thing on  a Monday prior to market open is a big bonus.
We'll start with some common charts I have posted on my Stockcharts page.

First, Crapple. We have two possible counts at the moment and the count should resolve one way or another early next week. My primary count is that it has topped (for all-time).
The alternate has it instead in a wave 4 of (5).  It could be a wave 4 triangle. We'll see early next week. If it moves down through the gap up, its a pretty good argument that exhaustion has set in.

And with Steve Jobs getting nasty with Adobe and sending in a swat team overkill for his precious f'kin i-phone, even Jon Stewart ripped on Apple and called them "Appholes" (Google it on YouTube). Seems appropriate stuff to mark an all-time high. Arrogance. All that cash and they still tightly control and charge $$$ too much if you ask me.

And as EWI says about being "on top of the world", the populace will grow tired of them (jealous) and the government will take a whack at them because they have money.  That and I think the i-Pad is a big loser that won't have staying power like the iPod.
And the daily shows the alternate count labeled.  
Next up is Google. At important $525 support as you can see.
Amazon also has some choice waves. It appears to be breaking down.  Peaked and then earnings it loses interest.  It too has a big gap up that will likely be filled in the near future. The count looks good.
XOM may have made its (E) wave. Way too early to tell. But for the near term, another stock with a key trendline break.
Visa is one I have on the backburner. I was plotting an ending diagonal wedge with overthrow and it appeared to have played out that way.
Priceline. One long trendline. Technicals don't look great. Possible top. ROC is waning and breaking under zero line. It doesn't report until May 10th.

I'll have more this weekend.

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