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Thursday, May 13, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 May [Update 9:15PM]

[Update 9:15PM: It has been gnawing on me but it is of my opinion, and that is opinion only, that between the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury, and the Primary dealers are running the greatest Ponzi scheme in the history of world.   It doesn't even pass the "common sense" test anymore that the US treasury is issuing $100's of billions every few weeks that there is even enough "legitimate buyers" left in the world to absorb the debt.

Its not being absorbed by legitimate buyers, its just getting passed to Primary Dealers and hidden and repo'd numerous times over in dark pools, hidden, repurchased again and stashed back in the dark pools again or whatever scheme of the week they come up with or whatever "discount program" they deem they need for that month.  It is a nefarious scheme and there is of course no backing out or unwinding without a terrible crash of the entire system. The Fed knows this. No wonder they fight tooth and nail against any audit.

The entire operation reminds me of some criminal enterprise money laundering operation. Yes thats what it is. Except its not money laundering, its "debt laundering" of the nth degree.

The ironic thing is 99.1% of the world has never heard of "dark pools" and don't know what a repurchase agreement is nor a derivative nor any of the other complicated balance sheet games used to cover up this Ponzi.

Social mood and nature will "correct" this abomination. It is inevitable. And if the people ever get smart about this stuff, they will realize just what a Ponzi it truly is and will want to get out of it all at once.  Sooner or later, the numbers are going to get so gigantic that some enterprising mainstream media person will be compelled to point out that what the government is doing is mathematically impossible.

I suppose we are all in this together, however the banksters, politicians and corporate insider cronys are ripping us off and stuffing their pockets in record amounts still. You know how people feel? Screw the system and let it collapse! Because they cannot stand to live in it anymore putting up with the open theft, cronyism and TBTF and a gun pointed at our heads forced to play casino games to try and keep pace.  It just doesn't matter anymore.

People make fun of the Greeks and blame them for rioting as if they are selfish fools although I certainly abhor any senseless innocent deaths. But has it ever occurred that the Greeks are well aware of the bullshit that is going on?  Why should they be forced into a purposeful depression with "austerity" measures when every other country is playing Ponzi games?

I take the contrarian position and suppose the Greek people, who founded democratic principles so many ages ago, are actually showing leadership in the world once again. They aren't putting up with the bullshit. They are likely the leading edge.

[Update 7:56PM: Amazon also looks like an ideal short setup. Over a 50% retrace. Filled its "blue box" area breakaway gap in a spurt up today and reversed. CMF looks weak.]

[7:43PM: BIDU looks ripe for the picking. Freakin thing needs to exhaust along with the market.]

[Update 5:16PM: Just throwing out a squiggle count. One can imagine that the final wave was a horribly truncated failure which, if correct, indicates extreme weakness and some selling to come.]

Today is the Fibonacci (13)th of the Fibonacci (5)th month of May.  The market decline from peak to low was a Fibonacci 8 days which took a Fibonacci 55 trading hours from high to low. And the rally since is into its Fibonacci 5th day. It hasn't quite reached a Fibonacci 34 hours as there was no afternoon rally and it fizzled out.

So taken together along with yesterday's NYMO reading of only minus Fibonacci 13, we could have the start of a serious wave 3 decline. Thats the primary count.

The alternate count is that wave 2 is not yet done. And how it would "get done" is anyone's guess.  The best guess is that it would hold upper support somewhere and keep grinding up. Upon loss of support, the gap down at 1110-1122 SPX is certainly inviting.

The market was again super low volume creep until the end of day selling produced yet again the biggest volume candles.
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