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Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 May [Update 10PM]

[Update 10PM:  I just thought of something: The next "flash crash" (and there will be another) they will trip the CB's. And that will shut the markets. And guess what? That sucker ain't gonna bounce 500 points up in 5 minutes this time.  They'll be stuck with a severely damaged tape when they turn the algo's back on....]

[Update 9:40PM: Here is a snapshot of the daily Wilshire. Some trendlines are in play etc.  One thing that stands out is that the market, just using simple RSI, is certainly not oversold.

So basic Fib projections of the short term (pink) and the longer term (blue Minor 3).  This is just a rough sketch showing just how much selling potential this market has in it.  Time will be the wildcard. It will move only when its ready. But it is possibly primed and nearly ready. Hey if its not, it'll let us know that too!

I will also note, the bears used to be enthusiastic on this board and others but no so much lately even though the potential for even bigger bear moves is very real.  But I see usual bears pondering a long scalp and such and waiting for the inevitable squeeze and a continuation of P2.  We have been neutered.

I look at it this way: I am investing in the shortside because its the better of the 2 positions. Why? Well lets just add up the evidence as of late:

1. 5 wave impulse patterns down, corrective ABC ups.
2. Five 90% down days since P2 peak.
3. Flash crash of a 1000 point intraday DOW.
4. Sovereign debt bubbles are cracking.
5. China is in a bear market.
6. France is nearly in a bear market.
7. Its all bullshit and its coming down.

P3 is going to be a bitch to play. And we are still above 1100!

To me, I look at it this way: The world is screwed and the music has stopped. This is something that I have pondered for a long time.

And when the market is sub 1000 again or sub 900, we'll look up and say, what was I thinking? I should of shorted that shit!

So thats the attitude I'm taking. The market is above 1100 and I'm shorting it!   If we pop back to 1180? Fine! I look at it as an opportunity. But really, we just had a 30-1 up day that was retraced in full.

And for those who follow fundamentals, check this out Persistent weakness and approaching minus 2% growth compared to last year.  So when that GDP number comes in at a big fat ZERO or negative (which the Gummint knows already - hence short CB rules) , you gonna keep munching on Apples at $250+?

The short term noise is just that.
Due diligence.

[Update 6:17PM: : EWI's update tonight mentioned something that got me thinking. They mentioned "pulling stocks downward at several degrees of a third wave". So thinking in pure EW terms, we can imagine where the worse parts of selling potential would occur in a Primary wave [3] down.  It works like this: the more "threes" stacked up, the worse the potential for an extremely bearish move and lots of fear.

So charting the waves down to the subminuette level (black), I came up with four of the most potential selling points and fear in primary wave [3].

Obviously stacking 6 threes will be the #1 spot. This is when civilization is rocked to the very core.
That would be:

1.  Subminuette iii of Minuette (iii) of Minute [iii] of Minor 3 of Intermediate (3) of Primary [3]  = most powerful  down point in the entire bear market

However We have several other situations that may produce also a great amount of fear and selling.

The next probable rank of bearish down selling in order:

2. iii of (iii) of [i] of 3 of (3) of [3]
3. iii of (iii) of [iii] of 3 of (1) of [3]
4. iii of (iii) of [i] of 3 of (1) of [3]  = This is where we have the primary count now. This has several strong "threes" stacked up mainly Primary [3] and a Minor 3. Notice we have 4 of 6 threes stacked.

So one has to respect this potential severe bout of selling that may be right around the corner. These moments only come at a few spots in time and has the effect of rocking the market.  So the market is either ready for this severe selling bout or not quite yet.  Traditional TA with traditional indicator levels will be blown out by P3 in many places. This is one of those spots perhaps.   There is nothing screaming "buy me now!" on the technicals other than what we suppose might be a "traditional" reading like the NYMO back down to minus 105.

I too hesitate to get really bearish here but hey, I'm a dumb bear who doesn't know better anyway. Just like the dumb bulls bought blindly and won, I'm not going to out-think the waves too much unless they demand it. So far its tracing nice impulses down and a-b-c's to the upside. Thats good enough for me until it proves otherwise.

We do have certain levels to look for and wave peaks as references with FIB retrace and trendlines. So its not like we don't have a map like everyone else.

But we do see the huge bearish potential and that is the power of wave theory!

Due diligence on your part is required.

[Update 4:50PM: The top alternate count as opposed to this primary count is that a Minute [b] wave low is occurring and in fact a new Minor wave 2 high is coming (or will be challenged). The wide price projected divergence between the primary and alternate counts is becoming a chasm and the primary count (down) is beginning to win out big.

Technically in my opinion, the market has plenty of room to drop big here in finishing out a Minute [i] of 3 down.  Then a Minute [ii] will surely help wash out excessive bearishness which is certainly building up.

So it just "feels" right that we head down, get all oversold and then bounce nicely for a Minute [ii] of Minor 3.  Minute [ii]  would probably be the next wave peak to touch the blue downtrend line from peak. Just a guess.

As we said, we should be able to tell the difference between the primary and alternate counts as they have now reached a big divergence point.  The bulls would really have to get their act together and quickly for the alternate to pan out at this stage.  There are plenty of hurdles now blocking their way.

And we just had a massive 4% up day with massive upside internals. Yet that has been completely retraced and then some! = bearish

Its a very exciting time to be charting waves. The market has come to an important junction.   The subwaves are showing a potential (i)-(ii), i-ii setup and the next wave would be the "third of a third" strong downside.

The fractal of the past few days reminds me of a large P1 fractal.  The continuous slide from yesterday's high to today's low reminded me of the slide from May 2008 to July 2008. One continuous wave that bottomed and the weak bounce in August then of course the collapse in September/October.

So the squiggles are setup for a third of a third almost once this rebound wave fizzles out.
Here is another variation the squiggles (this is how I labeled the May to July 2008 dropped was basically an extended wave):
1125 SPX is going to resent some problems. Not only is there horizontal resistance but two prominent trendlines converge. Also a down channel is developing.
If the market can retake 1125 with decisiveness, then we may have some other count going on. But so far the primary count has served us well. The SPX has not closed below 30 RSI (oversold) since the March 2009 bottom. Its due I suppose.

The alternate count? Well something other than the primary obviously.

Technically the market touched its 200 DMA again and has now closed the big SPX mega gap, yet managed to close above it.  When it closes beneath both the gap (1110 SPX) and the 200 DMA (1102) thats certainly bearish. We'll see how many want this dip.
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