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Thursday, May 20, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 May [Update 9:10PM]

[Update 9:10PM: The dollar has a head and shoulders that has broke under. Target is under 85. The dollar also has support lower at 83.  The daily bullish sentiment is sky high right now on the dollar and Euro the opposite.  So a relief rally for both of significance may have started as the dollar/euro is impulsing arguably in opposite directions.  How long that lasts is anyone's guess depending on what wave each is in which I haven't really studied enough to make an argument. But sentiment is extremely high so that is a danger.

We'll figure that out more this weekend but one reason I am not trying to get too bearish on equities after today's move is the markets may somewhat respond  or at least temper itself to these currency corrections.

As I have shown before, these currency corrections can happen very fast as I have shown with some previous dollar charts.  We seen that today with the Euro. Also, the Euro was well off its recent lows yet the US market finished at its low.  So don't assume the market will behave and hit certain price targets based on currency moves.

Tomorrow is also OPEX also.

[Update 5:49PM: This is an original chart I made putting together a "reasonable" wave pattern deflationary crash to pre-1990 stocks prices.  Prechter has a target of 400 DOW, which I won't argue. I have started out small. In other words, the entire rise up from 1990 would be retraced.

Is that unreasonable considering the world's greatest credit bubble is clearly popping in a momentous crash?

Inside Primary (circled black) wave [3] you can see how each red intermediate wave (1)(3)(5) needs to cover a lot of price territory in an expected amount of time.  So far, since the 1220 peak, who can deny this is whats happening?

But the sheer scale leads one to see how much a Minor (blue) waves must carry prices. And indeed Intermediate wave (1) just might cut off a huge chunk of P[1]. It would "look right".

Every major wave could be a mini-crash as in the worst of P1.

Also notice on the rise in the 1990's how the RSI was smashed above 70 for a long time on this weekly? Having the RSI smashed under 30 for a long time is not an unreasonable expectation.

So P3 could be a series of "flash crashes" indeed.   The danger in this market if this chart is correct is to misinterpret the waves and miss one of these flash crashes or get caught long in one and not being able to log in to your account as your stop gets skipped over completely.

Be safe.

[Update 5:05PM: Here is the answer for the NYMO. New record.  Any positive divergence from here in the days to come would be a signal that a relief rally is coming. Doesn't have to warn of course. This is evidence of P3 as P1's record down extremes are already being broken.]

[Update 4:38PM: Another look at the primary count from the view of the SPX 60 minute chart. I think the key point is that Minute [i] of 3 should ideally have a price low lower than Minor 1 low of 1065.  I guess we'll see how it all works out.]

Sure looked like the "third of a third" played out today along with a sideways subminuette or minuette wave four.

This is the kind of day or "point of recognition" moment that lets the market know that the bears are now firmly in control.

The squiggles produced a "blue box" area and if we conservatively put a set of Fibs with the 50% point near the upper line of the blue box we have a lower target for Minute [i] of 3.  This seems about right as Minute [i] of 3 should go ideally go lower in price than that of Minor 1.  The 1044 pivot would be a nice spot.

1071 was an important battleground area for the bears/bulls on the last go-around and now the market has closed right at the same area. A loss of 1071 will probably result in the test of 1044 pivot. All this can be seen on the second chart.

Best guess is charted below.   The next hit on the blue trend-line, no matter where it comes from, should be, in theory, a Minute [ii] of 3.  But first we need a confirmed price low for [i] of 3.

It is presumptuous to throw an even lower target down there in the coming days, but that is based on a normal wave structure projection and Fib alignments. Hey I didn't make the guidelines! In can of course deviate from this straightforward wave projection.
Not much else to say other than wow look at the down internals which of course supports a "third of a third."

Got a most solid close under the 200 DMA no doubt about that one.

Finally at the end of day the RSI dipped below 30 and officially there is no positive divergence heh. The market likes tidiness. The scary thing is an RSI reading of 29.81 is hardly the most oversold the market has ever been. It can of course go lower.
I'll have more later.
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