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Friday, May 7, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 7 May [Update 11:20PM]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/small-investors-spooked-by-market-swings-2010-05-07

and this rubbish http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-you-should-do-about-markets-selloff-2010-05-07

Jeesh. This is one of those stories you see EWI harp on. How everyone is "hanging in there" and how they regret "selling too soon". After all they need to "put their cash to work".

This is a good sign for bears. No mention of a "double dip" anymore. No mention of retesting the 666 lows . Just buy baby buy to "catch the next 30% up".

Oh yes, they are primed to buy the drops.  If this market drops 20-25%, they will be licking their chops. All of them.

The market had to rise from February to May in order to create this necessary condition....even though it plunged almost back to its beginning in merely 30 minutes. Incredible that no one in this story thinks a 1000 point intra-day drop, from nearer a market peak no less, is not a very bad sign...

I'm in this to the bitter end. Deflation is a bitch. The credit bubble is bursting before our very eyes and most cannot see it.   This market is doomed to its fate.

[Update 10:20PM: After reading EWI's update tonight they too bumped up their wave labels as I did. I went from a Minute degree [i] to looking at a Minor 1 low. They went from Minuette all the way to Intermediate!. EWI, like everyone else that pointed it out today, have a wave four triangle playing out. Except its at Minor degree which seems much for an intraday triangle.

But not only that, if EWI is predicting a primary wave [3] indeed like I am, then having an Intermediate (1) , which is just one degree lower than Primary, seems one wave degree too high. After all, if the market is going to go beneath the 666 low, (and indeed Prechter is predicting DOW400 for bear market low by 2016) then Intermediate wave (1) should, just by the "look" lop off quite a bit of P2's rally all by itself.  Reference my chart here and this is a conservative chart. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S-NCeYTfvwI/AAAAAAAAFHs/qRcG1o1FGdU/s1600/wilshire+weekly.png

So needless to say, I am thinking this is only Minor wave 1 of (1) of P3. (who knows, in the end it may be Minute!) Then a larger H&S pattern may emerge (wash out the bearishness a bit) and then the targets are lower as you can see.

[Update 5:40PM: Its very dangerous to assume there will be some magical bounce. Using the Wilshire 5000, the market is breaking down at very near the exact same price levels as it did in 2008.  


I roughly sketched 2010's candle movements onto the 2008 chart at the approximate price levels.
You get the idea.
Primary count is that a wave [iv] triangle is playing out and should resolve early next week.
Looking for (e).  The alternate count is a bullish triangle.
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