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Saturday, May 29, 2010

Weekend Charts and Stuff

The rebound since the recent low has been very overlapping, non-impulsive and lacking clear 5 wave structures every step of the way.  Sure we can put truncated endings at spots if we feel like it, but why would we try and bend the EW rules and guidelines at every turn?  There is no reason or need at this juncture. Its just not the way to apply the theory. The waves are the way they are because they are saying something about the overall rebound.

Could it be a bunch of other things in the long run? Sure. But the bottom line there are no impulsive wave structures going up yet. Only down at this stage. Thats what we see, so thats what we count.

But we do have a futures market and that does effect the cash index openings of every trading day. Monday is Memorial Day and there will be long sessions of futures trading from Sunday night (6PM EST) to Monday morning (1130AM EST) and then reopening at 6PM on Monday.  (please correct me if I made a mistake with this) The futures have been making large moves as of late just like the cash index so we could have more of the same.

One way the cash index can make it back to the SPX gap that resides at 1115.05-1107.34 is to gap up over 1095 run above 1100 and run hard as it can on the open.  And although I almost have never used a triple zigzag on my charts (save for P2 heh) this would be one of those cases where a triple ZZ makes sense.

A triple ZZ here is like an act of desperation by the market in trying to save it from a massive price move downward. A great amount of technical damage  has been inflicted since the 1220 SPX peak, far more than what occurred in the February 2010 decline low. The market must repair it for the bullish options to pan out , and make haste in doing so.

Here we can see the first ZZ from the 1040 SPX price low made an adequate a-b-c "three" and took the market back to a 38% retrace. The second ZZ must surely be counted as an a-b-c "three" and advanced the retrace almost to the 50% (using the Wilshire5000).  If the market can muster up yet another ZZ, it must do it probably very soon out of the gate on Tuesday. Why? Well if the market heads down, it may lose near term support and has a huge prominent gap up at 1067.95 - 1074.27, an equally painful exposure.  If the market loses this area, it opens the door for a drop deeper.

You have to also recall the reasoning behind a double or triple ZZ. It is a doubling or tripling in form to achieve an adequate price retrace.  So using that reasoning, a triple ZZ must always make progress over the last ZZ that occurred.  Therefore, the third ZZ should not be occurring from a start point lower than the start of the previous ZZ or else we wouldn't call it a triple ZZ. And naturally it has to "look" correct and make sense wave-wise. We wouldn't expect a third ZZ to retrace some 85-90% of the second ZZ to launch from.

In this case then, the "launch" point for a final ZZ is likely from the 1084 low achieved Friday. Then the c wave would thrust from support. As a reference, this would be approx the 38% Fib.

So the market could, in theory, make a small opening dip down and then thrust upwards in a grand surprise move. But how likely is that to occur to have to actually work your way up? This is a lazy market! It is a possibility but the more likely route the market would take is through the use of a massive gap over near term resistance at 1095 and gun it like a race car at the open and see what kind of mud slings up. And since we have a holiday and hence many trading hours for the futures to position themselves for just such a move, we have to ponder what our plan is if that were to happen.

So what if the SPX gapped up, ran over 1104 and started to fill the big gap down? What would we expect and what would the market look like?

First, the internal numbers would probably be screaming high again, albeit likely lower than the numbers at the last big gap up at 1065.  However, sustaining big internal numbers all day is precisely what the markets need to do for the bull case. They need a "follow-through" 90% up day to the 90% up day of Thursday. This they would need to "overcome" the very bad down breadth day of May 20th.

Second the market would have 2 huge festering open up gaps. One at 1065-1074, and likely another at 1089 - 1093/1094 or so.

So if the market churned upwards (after a big gap up) in overlapping squiggles and begun closing the 1115-1107 gap down, I'm looking for these things to happen:

a) Squiggles show perhaps an ending diagonal triangle move with the post-opening gap peak price labeled as [1] of c of (z).
b) Market up volume ratio and advancers decline all day and grow weaker.
c) A final fit of "overthrow" in an effort to close the gap and perhaps an interaction with the big down-sloping trendline from 1220 peak.
d) A huge reversal and an exhausted market gets spanked hard.
e) A shooting star candle forms and the market closes under the 200DMA.

Wave [ii] would then be over. [iii] of 3 would commence.

For once 1065 is lost, the neckline is lost and a plunge of the markets in a hard wave [iii] of 3 looks like a very real probability.

Of course all this is for naught if none of this happens. But any good bear must be mentally prepared to have the market go against him and against him hard for a bit.
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