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Wednesday, June 9, 2010

E-minis

The hourly stochs and MACD have continuously corrected upwards over the last few days, yet prices are still well positioned in a bearish looking setup, at least for one more move down to a low under 1040 SPX. A pause after the 120:1 down volume ratio day.

Hulbert says we are too bearish http://www.marketwatch.com/story/contrarian-look-at-stock-sentiment-2010-06-09?link=kiosk  I don't like to necessarily blow off that kind of excessive bearish sentiment reading.

However Ponzi-awareness is slowly going mainstream and I feel its here to stay. The 900 pound gorilla can no longer be ignored by the masses http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN088462520100608

And as regular readers know, I maintain that the only situation where 100% negative bearish sentiment (and we are certainly nowhere near extreme!) can still result in 100% selling is when a Ponzi scheme is "outed".

We'll see if today/tomorrow washes out the last of the short term sellers and allows a proper leading diagonal to form.  And by proper I mean the SPX needs a new low under 1040 and the Wilshire5000 needs a new low under 10902 (its low yesterday was 10908.5!). These are picky things yes, but I didn't make the rules.

Good luck!
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