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Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 June

Ahh, finally the early June pop a day late. Many ways to count the waves since the 1040 low. First, the primary count still has the market likely in a Minute [ii] of 3.  There are other counts, but this count allows a market move all the way to SPX 1125+ so no need to mix things up at the moment

This squiggle chart puts together most short term counts for Minute [ii] depending on how tomorrow opens. A gap down could be an "e" wave.

I chose the triangle as the primary count because the "c" wave is so darn complex that it just looks like a triangle wave.  Also each wave in the triangle has two "touch points" at the a, b, c so far which is also sometimes displayed in triangles this size. But it would require an "e" wave sometime tomorrow. A gap down open would be a perfect fit for an "e" wave. Like maybe a "bad" jobs report or whatever.  Remember "e" waves makes us think a new trend is starting (down) and then it reverses hard at the e. Just speculation here.
Overall we can see that the market merely has to make a new high above 1103 to fulfill its (y) or (c) wave obligations.  The gap down at 1107-1115 seems the challenge spot.
Internals show a massive 20:1 up day in volume ratio yet advancers versus decliners are way more muted than the last 2 recent bounces. Total volume is lame-o.

The DOW failed to hit its blue box area and its retrace was on the light side.  Could be working a triangle but again needs a clear "e" wave.
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