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Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 June [Update 8:45PM]

[Update 8:45PM: Not a lot of support in the blue box. NDX finally took some damage today technically. Broke under neckline support.]

[Update 4:45PM: Here is the larger picture.  You can see, that looking for Minute [i] of Minor 3 low is the best count for now.  If today's gap was the "middle third", or roughly the center of the structure down from 1131, then Minute [i] would project to around 1000 SPX.

We also have a channel developing and a lower channel line that eventually would like to be hit again perhaps and that resides lower than 1000.
[ORIGINAL POST]
Sometimes it appears at first glance we lose sight of the forest for the trees.  We cannot nor shouldn't in this market. Despite all the fancy charts, trying to get the little squiggles on a Minor wave 3 down near its top half is somewhat hazardous.  Just knowing we are likely in Minor 3  of Intermediate (1) should be good enough.

But backing up a bit, as we occasionally like to do, we have a Primary wave [3] down count in a cycle wave c of a Supercycle bear market.  This should take prices quite low. Robert Prechter argues DOW 400 or less when the Primary [5] down of c of the Great Bear is finally over.   I am not so bold but testing DOW 1000 support seems doable.  (And hey if we make it to 1000, whats another 60%?)

Fundamentally we have the "perfect" setup for this to happen: Our world financial system is arguably a Giant Ponzi.

Sentiment-wise, I have argued that in spite of massive negative sentiment, a Ponzi scheme, when recognized as such, will still result in price collapse. When people found out Madoff's fund was a Ponzi, sentiment turned 100% negative against it. And it naturally still collapsed.  Now the entire market is not a true Ponzi but if a good chunk of it (bonds, derivatives, etc.) is, then what would keep the stocks market up?

THEORY: SUBWAVE ONE OF A WAVE THREE SHOULD ADVANCE PRICES
So using that logic, Primary [3] has a lot of work to do in cutting down prices.   And taking that logic further, we search for an Intermediate (1) of [3]. In theory, this Intermediate wave (1) should advance prices lower  than the previous wave one of next higher degree. This means (1) of [3] should take the market toward or below 666SPX prior to bottoming.

So you can see, extrapolating even further, we see that Minor 3 of Intermediate (1) has its work cut out for it. I suspect that Minor 3 will cut prices down quite a bit.  Perhaps equivalent to the 2008 crash period.

So again, taking that further along, the first Minute wave [i] of Minor 3 should again advance prices lower than the previous Minor 1.

And today those prices have advanced lower than 1040. So we are in a legitimate price range for a possible Minute [i] of Minor 3 of Intermediate (1) low.

LOOKING FOR MINUTE [i] OF MINOR 3
Minute [ii] of 3 is likely to be the "oh shit, I ain't going down there" counter-rally wave.   Its likely to launch from below the 1040 support, perhaps well-below.  And its likely to be a quick, desperate rally.  The 19-23 Sep few hour rally of 2008 was a Minute [ii] of 3 of (3). Thats about the comparable thing I can think of.

(but again, this is just conjecture. The market will move the way it wants)

The downside internals today were of a "middle third" quality. At 11:1 down decliners and a 60:1 down volume ratio, its the second or third worst day of the year and the worst downside pressure by far since the 1131 high. In addition 1040 neckline has now been tested some 4 times. It already started to break down a bit today.  

Placing the FIB markers with the 50% Fib marker near the middle yields a possible Minute [i] low of near 1000 SPX. If today was the "third of a third" play out (middle of the Minute [i] structure), or iii of (iii) of [i] of 3, then all the rest of the final subwaves need to finish. Getting back to the larger count, 1000 SPX (or lower) would look nice for a Minute [i] low.  

So again, the market is not going to make it easy.  However, we know Minute [i] needs to advance prices under 1040. It likely has.  By how much more is what we'll find out.

The important thing is we are impulsing down in 5 and well rallying in 3 and the primary count has us in a likely Minor 3 of (1) of [3] down. 
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