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Thursday, June 3, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 June

The market has managed to again position itself for a possible gap up and run over/through resistance (if it can) that spans roughly from 1105-1121 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-fails-first-test-of-the-200-day-mvg-avg-2010-06-01?link=kiosk (see Ashbaugh's take on this resistance band)

Obviously tomorrow's jobs report will be likely greeted with volatility. The short term wave structure supports a variety of possible market opens from a gap up, to a gap down or even a flat opening.

The hourly shows a simplified 5-3-5 zigzag count that has an unfinished high, but its probably been more complicated than that.
Some of the more complicated counts are shown together on this squiggle chart.  There is even room to allow a very bearish gap down in the morning as a finishing "e" wave. For the SPX, this "e" wave low, if it were to occur, should move to under 1190 before reversing hard up in a thrust move. Again this is speculation.

Ironically, (or not actually) if your a bear you'd like to see a gap up open and a very "good news" jobs report. And ironically if your a bull, you'd probably like to see a gap down opening and negative sentiment associated with the jobs report blared in the media.

For a gap up on a "great report" that gets closed under is akin to a "buying climax" and bearish for the market.

A gap down that gets bought aggressively will squeeze shorts into abandoning shorting the market, at least for tomorrow anyways. A close above the 200DMA for the SPX at around 1106 is a bullish goal. A challenge of the 1107-1115 gap is of course the real goal.

So the premarket should be interesting to say the least.

As a bear with a bearish bias, I hope to see a gap up and then close in the red.  At any rate, if the market closes under 1065, that would be really bearish for the market as that would equal exhaustion because the big recent up days will have been closed under.
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