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Thursday, July 1, 2010

E-minis [Update 3:45PM]

[Update 3:45PM: As far as comment policy, I hate to be a policeman and nitpick comments but one thing I ask is to not have comments about another site or blog.  It just becomes a comment war and it leads to no good.  I work a day job and cannot regularly police comments. In the past, that has contributed to me
missing comments after I get home that have been posted about other sites and that I regret.  I thought all that was in the past, but it has become a problem again recently.

So please, if you have a complaint about another blog, make that complaint somewhere else. Thanks!]

[Update 3:10PM: Possible squiggle count if we assume there are higher prices to be met.]
[Update 1:30PM: Here is the 10 minute Wilshire showing the same count.  I left the Fib lines reside at the upper wave (i) and i price low and the lower line has yet to be hit at 10536.  10555 also seems a neat price.

So again, after this rise finds its ideal peak, one more low should occur in the wave structure to look best.  Doesn't have to happen as things look good pretty good as they are, but I think one more washout is coming and that will help setup positive divergences signalling a Minute [ii] bounce.

If today prints a hammer candle, then the new low would likely not be tomorrow either but sometime next week.

Don't shoot the messenger here if I am way off LOL.

[Update 12:55PM: The best count for now is that the market is in a wave (iv) of [i] of Minor 3.  Wave (iv) should ideally trace into the previous subwave iii price range. That means at least 1035.  Backtest of the SPX neckline is around 1040.  It should also be lower than the previous subwave iv price high.  So we have a range.

So a "backtest" of the neckline area and a fall off in a wave (v) of [i] may be "piled on" short and a final wave of selling to Minute [i] low.

Moving the Fib lines to have the 50% Fib to the middle of the blue box virgin area, yields a low of around 990 SPX.  This is major pivot support.

So again, the 1010 SPX low is definately in a good Minute [i] price territory but would look even better with one more up/down....
A little overnight mayhem to get the quarter started. Recovered.
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