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Monday, July 12, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 July [Update 9:53PM]

[Update 9:53PM: Curiouser and curiouser...chart below.]
[Update 7:30PM: Squiggle count. Looks like an ED is forming. Looking for a pop to 1084-1087 range or overthrow a tad higher.  This count reminds me of how the 1173 bounce high ended http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S-xr2hFj1rI/AAAAAAAAFOw/725L2vqSWa8/s1600/wilshire1.png

I mean everything looks like "threes" including the bullish pop on the 7th of July.
And the intraday squiggles showing the ascending triangle:

[Update 5:50PM: Before any bulls get too excited in the A/H's, the e-minis and NDX100 minis are showing a negative divergence. NDX100 failed to take out today's high]
The NASDAQ 100:
The larger picture shows the market is back battling a long standing axis precisely where the bear candle of June 29th drove stocks under with prejudice.

Despite the green NASDAQ, DOW and S&P500, the total market had more decliners than advancers and this reflects in the Wilshire5000 failing to close above the June 29th bear candle as it did on Friday by a mere .17 points.

Again the larger picture shows that Minute[ii] is exactly where we suggested it would be. The longer it hangs in this area, the more bearish sentiment will correct.

The market would like nothing better than to shoot over this bear candle with its own buying conviction so that it can be used as high support in a further run-up.  The wave count of Minute [ii] suggests any attempt to break up and away will be thwarted soon enough. Today was one such attempt at breaking over the candle.

Using wave logic, and assuming a P[3] stance, the market is either in Minute [ii] of Minor 3 or its not. How simple.  If it is not, then we must assume its Minor 2 proper and that it will attempt to take out the current Minor 2 high (1131 SPX).

Again if its Minor 2, it has its work cut out for it as it is sitting under 3 major bear days (May 6th, 20th and June 29th) candles since the 1219 peak all of which are adding to the pressure on prices.  These candles act as an overhead supply depot for stocks.

At the very least the market has given us a myriad of stop limit options. There was positive divergence on the MACD but that is nothing to get excited about as if this is Minor 3, it will get wiped out.
Overall the primary count of Minor 3 stills looks very good from a larger perspective.
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