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Thursday, July 15, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 July

Primary count is that the market is in a Minute [b] consolidation wave of Minor 2 up.
The alternate count is Minute [ii] of Minor 3. Both counts imply the same thing: Minor 3 is next up to the plate and its down for the markets as soon as Minor 2 exhausts itself.

The key for a Minute [b] is to hold higher support levels in any pullback such as what happened today.  A big break under 1070 and certainly a close under 1065 area will give pause to the [b] count certainly.

The AAII survey which went way bearish last week just had one of its biggest jumps in history this week. So it is no longer uber-bearish.   Other surveys and indicators are experiencing a jump in sentiment as we expected.

The dollar's losses are accelerating as I speculated the other night that a loss of the channel up would start to move things. It is now firmly inside my wave (2) target box but it may not be done yet.
Nothing unexpected. Neither impulse down nor up really. Sideways and thats spelling [b] wave for now. We can speculate on what pattern it will trace but running triangles are popular and flats and expanded flats too.  Maybe a combination.  
If this Minor 2 count is correct (and I wonder if it can break the down channel) then we should probably be able to "see" a clear [b] wave bump on the daily and so far its starting to develop. 

You can also imagine that if the market can eventually break up and over the down channel as I have drawn, it could certainly run up a bit in a [c] wave once its free which supports the deep retrace probability following a leading diagonal wave.  It will certainly light a fire under bullishness if that happens and with the still low volume and lack of buying conviction, if the market does move above 1131 again, I think it could set itself up for an even bigger flash crash this time.

Only this time the new market rules may inadvertently screw up any rebound attempt and break the market a bit.

But I am getting way ahead here in my thoughts. But anyways, thats what I think if the market runs up high to 1131 or more. 
Actually a nice divergence situation with some indexes getting above 1131 pivot and others not (like Industrials do and Transports don't for a DOW theory sell signal) could be the signal that this sucker is ripe for a smackdown.
PS - Sorry was very busy today at work and I haven't read comments yet.
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