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Monday, July 19, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 July [Update 6:04PM]

[Update 6:04PM: Looking at the e-minis as having a distinctive top at 1099.25, there is indeed a 5 wave impulse pattern down.  It doesn't quite translate as well on the SPX but looks pretty good on the futures.]
Over the weekend I speculated between the top two counts. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TEM5cxWtD_I/AAAAAAAAGas/kwBGXHTJD2o/s1600/wilshire.png One is a Minor 2 up in progress experiencing a [b] wave pullback. The other count is that Minor 3 down has started.

And it is troublesome that at this point in time the top two counts go in opposite directions and, unsure if the market is ready for more massive selling, (sentiment readings), I have been presenting both viewpoints and pretty much letting the readers decide and make the case as they of course should or even making another case altogether.  Actually we are letting the market itself decide as it should be .

However, this is starting to feel not unlike the last downturn from the 1131 high. Some initial hard down, then pause for a day or so with small ABC -type retraces up and then WHAM! The market drops down hard in a mass sell decision point. The market is just below the top of that last June 29th decision point so having it confirmed again with another very bearish selloff makes sense here.

As far as squiggles, we could have an impulse down but its certainly not ideal.  A new low tomorrow strengthens greatly the bear case for a bearish impulse structure. A new low under today's low prior to any retrace into 1080 damages the [b] of Minor 2 wave case for the market.   A breach of 1080 prior to any new low under today's low damages the bearish wave structure.

A quick synopsis of the bear count at looking at things suggests another hard selloff in a Minuette (iii) - or a subminutte iii - is coming very very soon. After all, if this is Minor 3, its going to start moving down with more authority.
So all in all, today went as expected pretty much except the case for [b] of 2 is damaged due to a less than robust rebound today (and the A/H's futures falling hard)

The [b] wave of Minor 2 is still intact but starting to look very shaky indeed.
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