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Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 July

Primary count is wave (iv) of [c] is over or almost over.  A close alternate is that we have seen Minor 2's high on some indexes if not all.

On opening today the CPC spiked down to .44 such was the conviction that the bullish-looking triangle created yesterday was going to break big upside. But it didn't. Everyone is waiting for that final upside (or if your really bullish, waiting for big upside). Sometimes we have a habit of pushing for that last squiggle wave that never comes (up or down). I am usually guilty.

Wave (iv) of [c] interpretation has almost run its course.  The DJIA had a beautiful triangle  http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TFBzr3n0CoI/AAAAAAAAGqg/NEpqTEZ_9QI/s1600/djia1.png going and it also failed.  Yet as long as the S&P hangs above 1100 or so, don't consider wave (v) of [c] dead just yet. But the more it pulls back, the more its upside target is damaged.

So, the wave (iv) is by no means dead just yet for some indexes, but having a new recovery high in all indexes is quite damaged. The NASDAQ took a decent hit down today. Negative divergence on the hourly RSI is apparent and seemingly playing out. The NASDAQ has formed a serviceable base channel. Apple looks damaged.

You can see a 5 wave pattern down from Minor 2 even from this distance.
The DJIA triangle can still be a triangle I just flipped it to a bearish one.
And here is the larger picture on the DJIA. Bounced at the triple intersection of the base, wave and deceleration channel lines.
SPX could still be a wave (iv) but it cannot take too much more of a hit I wouldn't think. The SPX has no virgin wave space left even on this 30 minute chart.  So its overlapping which generally I take it as its running out of momentum.
And the DJIA and TRAN do have an intraday divergence.
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