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Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 July

Well, if the market just made that silly little new low under 1010 SPX for Minuette (v) of [i] all would be right with the world.

Primary count still supports that call. If a new low came under 1010 SPX, likely we would have positive divergence on the VIX and along with every other indicator on many time scales.  Remember, fear should be maximum at wave three low ideally (VIX was maximum at 1010 low for this subwave structure - discount the longer term diveregnce), but sentiment should be maximum on wave five low. Who would doubt if we broke to new lows that sentiment would get real bearish?

But the market seems to want to rally or that it knows it should rally. But like my dog who yearns to run just prior to being left off the leash, his anticipation is always premature. At the very least, we have 3 waves up from the 1010 low.  Call it want you want, that is the overall bottom line for now.

The usual suspects:  
Again, why cannot it provide  a nice symmetry? I see no reason for "truncation" events. The theory calls that wave five should end under wave three.  (Also remember how I said wave fours should overlap? Well, now we have that overlap.)
And the Wilshire for form:
The daily candle on the Wilshire shows a perfect neckline test, then back off. Potential shooting star for now.
Quick squiggle count: Truncation? I have no reason to suspect as much but I won't fight the market.
Again, Europe was up big. FTSE up almost 3%!  So rally for Minute [ii] is still the call near term more or less...would be nice to get a quick price low under 1010 SPX first.....So, we'll see.
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