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Sunday, August 29, 2010

E-minis (Sunday Night Edition) [Update 6:08AM]

[Update 6:08AM: As far as the "wedge" earlier it would be labeled an impulse - if thats what it turns out to be - there was no overlap of four and one.  I was merely pointing out a wedge shape as far as converging trendlines go - and the market is trying to make hay out of it - and could fail miserably as a result because its not a true overlapping wedge.

Anyways - good luck!  Certainly higher prices are good for bears cause I don't think they would last.

[Update 6AM: Initial thrust up takes a breather and gives back most gains over the last few hours. Europe is flat.

Remember, the earlier charts on this post are there as an alternate - I should have emphasized that - we at least need an alternate for instance for a move to 1075 SPX- how would we label it?

But if tonight's futures are unmatched today in the cash SPX index  - that is a sign of excess optimism perhaps. And would be certainly bearish.

The primary count can still be found here (in one form or another)  http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/THgwt37Sy3I/AAAAAAAAHTM/QG__JmIra68/s1600/spx30.png

We'll sort it all out in the end and certainly there is a heap of resistance at 1065-1072 zone.  Volume to break through above it - at least on first try? I have my doubts and they would be well-founded.   Good luck today!]
Perhaps too much bearishness (AAII survey was pretty bearish) with sellers possibly exhausted as the declining volume lessened as last week slogged on. Its tough to say how Monday will play. Will volume pick up any?

Now we have the last week of August summer vacation trading. The thing looks like a zigzag down (as we now have a ton of overlap on the e-minis) but I prefer a falling wedge if there is a big bull follow-through day to confirm it. Not sure about nested 1-2, as the second 1-2 would be almost bigger than the first which may not look right...unless the price falls apart right about here.
Minute [ii] of 3 in 2008 was also the result of a falling wedge http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/THWirvu01HI/AAAAAAAAHRs/bEQDiwrLN9k/s1600/spx60.png Retrace about 72%.

So the sharp rebound, so far, is indicative of a post wedge violent move.  Lets see if they can maintain elevated prices.
 The indexes do have converging trend-lines forming a wedge:
Well bonds look perhaps toppy on the weekly.  Very pronounced candle.
Should be a fun week. Very tough counting right now and very tough read on how sentiment is playing. Also still pre-Labor day.  
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