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Friday, August 20, 2010

E-minis [Update 2:36PM]

[Update 2:36PM: Still kicking possible wave ii of (iii) counts around.  This would be about 1086-1087 on the SPX, perhaps Monday. Then wave (iii) down.]

[Update 12:10 PM: From a [5] = [1] standpoint, the SPX is pretty much there. As you can gather I don't entirely trust the SPX count as per my differing Wilshire count...

Well I have some errands and other stuff to do. Good luck today.]
[Update 12PM: I added some downside internals on this Wilshire.]
[Update 11:44AM: Down pressure is picking up again. Its not looking good for the wave ii bounce setup.  In fact, just the opposite may occur if this market cannot maintain support.  Now at the SPX 1065 "flash crash" May 6th candle low.

Its seems awfully complacent still and price action is somewhat reminiscent of the time right before the "flash crash"....

Its like everyone is looking around waiting for everyone else to provide the spike up
in prices....well it ain't happening yet]
[Update 10:52AM: Best count still suggests a wave ii bounce and considering its OPEX I guess many others see it this way too. Down pressure has eased.]
[Update 10:36PM: Various divergences between the indexes suggest a wave ii of (iii) bounce is coming once sellers are exhausted.]
[Update 10:20AM: An SPX squiggle count which is at the "must defend" 1065 pivot.  The count still suggests a wave ii back up.  MAX PAIN I think happens to be 1085ish?]

[Update 10:08AM: A variation on the revamped Wilshire squiggle count only if the bulls can get the market to go green today.  But again, there is still considerable downside pressure on the market.]
[Update 9:57AM Still considerable down pressure for market internals.
Working out a new squiggle count for the Wilshire to account for 5 waves up.
[Update 9AM: Current futures and a possible best count for now.
[Update 8:08 AM: Another corporation http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gap-tops-profit-estimates-unveils-buyback-2010-08-19?dist=beforebell with another useless share buyback which is always "cheered" by even mom and pop type retail.  It blows my mind how these corporations get away with it. Stock buybacks only really help the people who own a lot of the stock - i.e. the upper management crust.  Its using leverage in a back-door draining of a corporation's cash flow. The paradigm thinking that a stock buyback is "good" is 100% wrong in my opinion. Usually these stock buybacks occur when the share price is high(er) anyway (social mood in rebound or at a high).

But looking at the Gap's balance sheet, why are they using leverage to buy back shares when they have obvious debt on their books? Is this too simple a question to ask in an overly complicated financial world? GAP is no Apple... http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=GAP&annual

Another stupid thing: M&A for the sake of M&A: http://market-ticker.org/archives/2595-If-You-Have-Too-Much-Cash,-WASTE-SOME!.html

Corporations are leveraged to the hilt more than ever before.  A market crash will expose them for the frauds and stupidity and reckless greed that they engage in on a massive scale.  And we will bail them out. But of course we cannot bail them all out...

I am not against capitalism, I am for a healthy capitialism that punishes stupidity and weeds out the reckless. But this world is far beyond that.  When eventually nature's laws forces man's hand, we'll abandon all free market principles in the name of "social good". Which means you will become a subject of a more fascist world where only the connected are taken care of. Indeed we have already lurched down that road.

From bondage - to liberty - to apathy - and back to bondage is the life cycle of man.  When viewed through the lens of Elliott Wave theory, it all makes sense. We seem to be heading back to the bondage stage.

For if I seem to be an endless "cheerleader" for a market crash of mega-proportions, thats really not fair. I know what is likely to come - fascism, civil strife, and war - and that scares me a bit. What I do hope is that P[3], were it to happen,  will purge and punish the reckless criminals and expose the fraud.  But my hopes are not high in that regard. By the time that comes, the people who committed the biggest crimes will have floated away in their golden parachutes long ago aided and abetted by the current political class that is looking to do the same.

[Update 7:45AM: Stockharts always has a way of printing little gaps intra-day if price movement is very rapid. I notice that any rebounds (or dips) always seem to gravitate to cover these areas.  Opening day gaps of course are another animal but same principle.

Yesterday of course printed a pretty decent sized intra-day (breakaway - i.e. - a small point of recognition middle of the third wave) gap. Any hard rebound today - perhaps a wave ii of (iii) of [i] - (or early Monday) would perhaps gravitate to this gap at the 1087 area which is resistance.  That would be the ultimate pile on short spot if it makes it that high.
Futures impulsing down.

All the worries of a (very) bullish rebound on OPEX seem a bit unfounded for now (hey I'm short like many of you) seeing how futures have achieved a new low overnight and completed, at minimum, a nice impulse pattern down.
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