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Monday, August 2, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 August [Update 8:48PM]

[Update 8:48PM: A quick snapshot of divergences occurring between reaction points. You can see at the early July lows it was a three day bottoming process. Perhaps we have the opposite occurring now. A topping process.

The small divergence signals a turn. The larger divergences signal that the turn is longer-term and should be of some size. Anyways thats the way I see it at the moment. Some of these will undoubtably change tomorrow...maybe.

Also note that there are no long term divergences when the July low(s) were set. (there were with the February lows though). However just since the April peak, the early July lows were all lower than anything prior since the April to June drop-off.

So suffice it to say, the bulls need to drag each of these indexes into a non-diverging configuration. I am not saying that it cannot be done, I am saying that as bullish as today was, the market still faces lots of headwinds.]
[Update 8:30PM: I think specifically when the dollar finds a wave (2) bottom, thats it for equities (and bonds a bit).  Still locked in a downchannel.  Daily dollar sentiment is very bearish at the moment.

Squiggle-wise, I show one more wave v of (v) of [v] of C of (2) due on the dollar.  This equates to the ED in equities in that the markets may only have a rise or so left.
[Update 7:15PM: The gap up today, and even the 2 intra-day gaps on the SPX are just beyond silly. I call it a  "belligerent" gap up opening because the MM's allowed it to occur almost gleefully with no intention of wiping the tape as they went.  Its almost as if they created as wide a gap as they could.  Almost 6 points out the gate? Please.  The sucking sound the market makes on the way down should be pretty cool.]
[Update 5:10PM: CPC 10 day average is having a tough time moving lower.  It curled up today which may be an impending sign that stocks will soon go down.

Also new TED recovery low today nearing 50% correction.  New VIX recovery low in a small 5 wave move down.]
[Update: 4:50PM: There are plenty of people who insist that since the cumulative chart made a new high today, stocks will follow (above 1219 SPX). I rather say its bound to diverge at the end just as the weekly has been diverging for months now. We'll see.
GDOW just 22 points shy of my expanded flat target zone.]

[Update 4:30PM: Dollar hammered. Minor 3 cannot go without the dollar ( I was right on that one).  Bottom soon?  Finding support at the 200DMA hopefully.
Oil hit my blue box virgin wave area as I suspected it might.

Everything is consistent with an ending diagonal pattern in play. We could be near the end or just at "a" of (v). Haven't hit the upper trendline on the SPX so we'll assume its "a".
Fewer and fewer advancers conforms to an ED view.
More charts to come as the data comes in.
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