[Update 8:15PM: This one chart alone makes me wonder if there is a pretty decent upside corrective coming at the least because the best count on the NYAD would have us go into one more accumulative high. This really needs to breakdown in a hard way for bears. Yet so far it hasn't.
Objectively it needs a new high to fulfill a wave count and would then produce a double negative divergence with market prices. And looking at the last movement, it took about 27 SPX points to produce an equivalent move. So using back-of-the-napkin math and intuition, if the SPX retraces 62% back toward the 1129 peak, it might only take 1105-1107 to perhaps trigger new highs on this NYAD. 1106.5 is the 62% retrace spot.
So this chart alone suggests 1105-1107 on the SPX. If they can close the 1090 gap, a squeeze to 1105 area seems doable.
Just a wild guess at the moment, this is one of those "will-it-work-and-pan-out?"-type charts. Well this is an EW blog and I like counting stuff....
A view showing the proposed entire Primary wave .
Primary count is that wave (i) of [i] of Minor 3 finished at today's low. Working on wave (ii) is probably the best option.
SPX has that gap above at the 1090 area and an inverted H&S would project a high enough target to close it. Some pretty decent positive divergences spanning the indicators and MACD on the hourly supports the count of a wave (ii).
One interesting possibility would be a downside Tasuki gap to get it back in the BB for a day. http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:candlestick_pattern_#downsidetasukigap And then the knife continues to fall?
I still feel bonds are blowing their final bubble regardless. Its getting a bit surreal. The last bond high came after a major panic decline (3) of P. This bond high is coming right after a major rally P
No signs yet of any kind of turn though. The piling into debt keeps coming at a record pace. Seems a fitting way to end a debt bubble perhaps....blowoff just like commodities in 2008.
Time will tell, there are lots of opinions on this. I'm just taking the least traveled projected route: A rising rate deflationary collapse.
So due diligence is required.