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Friday, August 27, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 August

Well, the waves registered a new near term low, by mere ticks, in both the DJIA and SPX which is curious, as if it was obeying an EW rule of some sort. We then had an expanding shape rebound as suggested last night in this chart http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/THbPTevLYsI/AAAAAAAAHSM/EUuGJ_uDe1g/s1600/wlsh15.png which happened to be around 11175 which is what printed today.

So hey, lets just slap a wave (iv) up here, call it an expanding triangle with a fakeout "e" wave that will snooker everyone over the weekend,  and see what happens. (If only were that simple - hey what the heck!)

The RSI downtrend line is very curious on this 30 minute SPX. Suppose we have a minor gap up Monday to close the gap down and then sell hard. Hey a bear can dream yes?

We no doubt need to look at other combination counts though. This is a tricky market.

(Note: The ALT:[i] works with an orthodox Minor wave 1 low of 1040 SPX as EWI has marked.  This would mean Minute [i] did advance prices lower technically....)

Here is another curious EW problem: If this chart is accurate and wave (i) is nearly as long as wave (iii) - hence practically equal - this suggests a barnstorming wave (v) which would be the true extended wave in Minute [i]. This is of course dependent if this count is correct.

We are again at the top of the channel. Unless the channel gets shattered by a big bull move come next week,  There is no reason to abandon the near-term bear count.
Wilshire is doing its own thing. The problem for bears is there were a lot of divergences with today's low which usually suggests a multi-day rally and next week is still considered a low-volume vacation week as Labor Day is late this year.
I really haven't looked at a whole lot, so likely the readers caught a lot of good stuff today. 

FED worship. Like Benny can save the world.  He cannot repeal the Laws of Nature.  His "helicopter drop" threat is more likely to BLOW UP the bond market and then he can suck on his QE and choke on it.
He wants to buy junk? The market will feed him junk all day long. Good luck Benny. Your days are numbered.

 I like EWI's mention of the "slope of hope" in their update tonight. Its as if everyone knows that the economy is screwed and we are just playing a temporary end-of-summer game here...just like in summer 2008....reality to set in soon.  When exactly?  When the market can catch the most off guard I suppose.

More charts later and certainly this weekend when I have a chance to look at more stuff
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