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Monday, August 30, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 August

The overnight enthusiasm that the futures displayed was indeed overoptimistic by far. Having reached 1072.75 overnight, the cash index was not interested at all in attaining that level or above, not even peeking positive.  I was quite sure the bears (me) may be skewered a bit today as some futures traders were a bit, but that fear alleviated itself by the morning cash index open.

Excess optimism in the futures and a market that miserably fails to follow - that is bearish in my book.

So we'll keep the primary count I have been tracking for a while, and see if it pans out. Wave (v) need only finish below wave (iii) to be a valid 5 wave move.  But if (i) and (iii) were about the same size, wave theory suggests that wave (v) is likely to be an extended wave.

And also being that it would be preferable (yet not necessary) for Minute [i] of Minor 3 to advance prices lower, that also aligns with wave (v) being an extended wave.

All this depends on 1040 support being taken out.  What would the market do to catch the most off guard this week? I suppose by smashing through in a gap down under 1040 and selling hard on an extended wave (v) after an apparent "double bottom" BS.
I am not crazy about the count, even uncomfortable with it, but it keeps working for the most part. The fact that I'm uncomfortable with it makes me like it.  Crazy self-sentiment checks.
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