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Friday, September 3, 2010

E-minis [Update 3:34PM]

[Update 3:34PM: This is the Sentiment Trader's STEM chart (I use it here in a fair use manner in promoting their services) which is a nice concoction of sentiment-related stuff.  After today, if the market finishes on the strongish side of things, this is likely to again be above the red line.

My point is, we have a lot of haters people-who-respectfully-disagree (well we really do have haters come here and even a regular who calls himself "Haaaaaaater") coming on here spewing about technicals and trends (?) and such yet not addressing underlying sentiment data that shows there is perhaps a great deal of risk.

Sure my wave counts are probably just as screwy as the next guy's but data like that below is the real story here. How can someone come on and not recognize such?  Sure this can get higher or more "extreme" but the wave counts are well grounded in technical sentiment measures.

It is also stupid to assume that this blog and its readers have not grown in knowledge in any way since early 2009/2010.  Analysts and wavers adapt and hopefully get better. Hopefully I have too. I certainly try to employ as much as I can into the limited time I have. I use other services to help me such as EWI and Sentiment Trader. (You'll notice I never had the [i]-[ii], (i)-(ii) count of EWI - which I stated they would be changing last week - yet I eagerly await their count tonight because I have a great deal of respect for them)

Regardless, this STEM chart has been correcting up since near the May 6th flash crash low.  We may have the wrong wave counts, but this chart below is not built on waves. It is built on real bullish/bearish data. And likely will be in the red zone again after the close today.]
[Update 2:45PM: Green line would be reversal spot I think]

[Update 2:15PM: Slight variation on the DJIA.  Which means it could stay elevated toward the close.  10405 is my "marker" for a reversal.]

[Update 1:38PM: Squiggle using the DJIA.]
[Update 12:25PM: Minis look wedgy]
[Update 12:22PM: Primary count on the squiggles.   If [5] up occurs, I'd look for truncation or a small intra-day double top with divergence between indexes possibly.]

[Update 11:03 AM: This chart is for the P[3] UP camp. It shows that it is (perhaps) folly to think the market is ready for P[3] up and it could be tracing a big triangle prior to a break down in (C) of P[2] down.  The triangle even shows the complex C wave which is typical.  So even the long term bull count is short Intermediate term bearish....

And another note for you P[3] up lovers: A primary-sized wave (in this case P[2] down) should take more than 10 weeks...

(Personally, I am not in the P[3] UP camp and its not on my RADAR because I feel the worldwide debt bomb Ponzi is bursting and social mood is in a downward spiral and we know what happens when Ponzi's burst)

[Update 10:40AM: Updated FTSE recount. Its actually good because it finally hit my blue box area today. This chart doesn't yet have updated data but I marked where today's high so far occurred.

The big deal (maybe) is that there is a major divergence with the DJIA at the moment.]

[Update 9:58:  When viewed through the lens of a retrace to the virgin wave area, the count makes sense.  1110.7 is the 78.6% retrace. Anything above that usually means a 100% retrace which is back to 1130 of course.

Numbers today are ridiculous as far as VIX low, CPC(E) low readings, etc. NYSE internals are of course very good but not that overly mind-blowing. The sloppy gap up today is a big target of course for the bear future.

Again, I give it to 1110.7 before I pack in the bear count here. Even a bull count could use a pullback so at this point, here we are...
[Update 9:05AM: The dollar's primary count. There are other possibilities, including that this rise since early August is merely a corrective [a][b][c] B wave of (2).   If thats the case, the dollar is on the verge of breaking down hard. But the pattern fits well as I have it with a strong updraft at (iii) and divergence at the top of (v).]
[Update 8:54AM: Bonds also nearing a channel line. Shorting TLT or via TBT was a good hedge since the 1039 low...]
[Update 8:47AM: Liquidation event.]
To the white box where horizontal resistance meets the downtrend channel could be the target.
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