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Friday, September 10, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 September

The wave/price action appears to be a running corrective wave (b) (or a wave four) ascending triangle that seems determined to squeeze the shorts right over resistance in order to be able to run up and challenge the open gap from 1121.06 and then maybe to challenge the 1130 mark again if it can maintain some wave momentum. If this were the case, most likely a good argument can be made that the market is still finishing Minor wave 2 which it increasingly is looking to be the case.

The SPX is stalled exactly at the 78.6% Fib retracement mark which is usually a maximum height of a wave [ii] retrace, although by rule it can retrace 99%.

So for Minute [ii] of Minor 3 to still be in play, the market pretty much needs to drive down hard come Monday and not look back. Maybe a small pop and drop open.  There is still a decent chance this is exactly what could happen, but I'll hold my breath.

But the SPX gap above is a pretty big one and the market seems determined at the moment. Having the last few weeks of the quarter approaching may be an incentive not to "mess with a good thing" as this quarter could be quite a nice one if September manages to end on a good note since the early July lows is when the turnaround started.

Overall I would say things are shaping up to be that perhaps many trading days advance and holding ground will be wiped out with a few days down moves. It "feels" that way at least. But a persistent upswing will likely strengthen some sentiment measures further perhaps (although sometimes it doesn't so much) so the waiting game could be worth it.

At some point, it'll be obvious that the risk is greater on the long side once everyone is "all in" again and further price gains are futile. Then the MM's will then do what they do best - get the tape moving again with speed in the opposite (down) direction. And the wave structure (and fundamentals and seasonality) is stacking up for that next down move to be a "everyone-head-for-the-doors" kind of event.

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