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Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 September [Update 4:50PM]

[Update 4:50PM: Things are getting close.  The FTSE100 count looks good here. The 78.6% is 5610.  It turned first at the April market peak(s). Looking for the same. Doji candle top.]
IYR looks near a wave 5 top. Maybe a major doubletop also.
Things are looking tired perhaps and certain sentiment measures are elevated to be sure.

I reconfigured the squiggles a bit to allow a squeaker high above 1129 mark to denote Minor wave 2 high.  This would mean one more squiggle rise.  Whether you use a double ZZ count as I have done here, or a straightforward [a][b][c] 5-3-5 single ZZ from the July lows, EW theory suggests that the [c] or [y] wave should end higher than the [a] or [w] wave. So that means a new high over 1129.4 would be required.

In the case of the Wilshire shown below, a new high above 11841.46 (August high) would be required.
Here is another option (the one I have been using the past few days) that supposes a bigger squeeze over 1130 is coming.  Certainly there are other options. We'll just have to see further evidence.

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