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Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 September

Things are starting to gel in the wave counts perhaps.  The SPX 60 Minute chart can be used to count the waves as well as the Wilshire 1 minute. Both seem to be in lockstep.

Since we assume this is still Minor wave 2, one has to think that a new recovery price high will occur on both the Wilshire and SPX.  The DJIA perhaps will diverge in this manner.

A strong guideline of a simple 5-3-5 zigzag or even a double ZZ is that the final [c] or [y] wave peak be higher than the [a] or [w] wave price peak.  So we have every reason to expect that a new recovery price high above 1129.4 will occur.  Price action seems to indicate that this is what the market wants to do.

And bear-market wave two's purpose is to challenge the previous breakdown spot, reclaim it, hold it as support and advance to new highs and thus prove it is not a wave two.  Wave two's want to be a bull wave.  This breakdown spot is usually a clearly marked "virgin wave" space that you see me typically mark on charts.

However the breakdown since the April market highs has produced only one small virgin wave spot and it exists vastly higher at 1175 area which happens to be the 78.6% retrace.   The squiggles and technicals and recovering sentiment picture does not necessarily support a move that high but it is a possibility depending on how the market can handle current resistance levels.

So 1120-1130 is a breakdown spot.   You can see this on the Wilshire chart too. The mass sell decision point is 11700 and the market is tiptoeing above this are yet again. Every time the market has tried to power past this point and break up and away from it, more selling has ensued in previous weeks.  But perhaps selling is still exhausted and the market will be able to escape for a while.

But first things first: 1130.

I like the squiggle count as needing just one more squeaker above 1130. My target is 1133.75.  The alternate count of where I have "i" of (c) marked is supportive of higher prices. It all depends on what happens with the next few squiggles.
Note the alternate spot for i of (c) which means a wave iii of (c) has yet to play out. Thats the count that supports higher prices from here.  That would have to be a massive squeeze above 1130 to produce that, then the peak can certainly be much higher. That would be a "melt-up" blowoff Minor 2 scenario which would likely setup a dangerous flash crash situation for the market once the momo reverses to the downside.
Looking at things more simply I see 5 waves down and 3 up.
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