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Friday, September 24, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 September [Update 5:30PM]

Update 5:30PM: It seems as if there is a bit of "performance" chasing going on. Seems thats why the NDX100 is getting a lot of action as it "beats" the SP500.  This is shaping up to be one of the greatest quarters so if your a fund manager, you had better be with it and have caught it.  Jobs aren't expanding in that department.

But what a brilliant way to herd the entire market into a corner than to see all performance-chasing for the last week(s) of September. If only they can make it to the finish line in one piece.  With an all-time mutual fund cash low of 3.4% (probably lower now), it seems we are about getting to the "ALL IN" point.

If the squiggle count is correct in an ending diagonal triangle, prices could collapse, as a start, back under 1100 SPX (under the starting point) rather quickly. I'd laugh my ass off if next week through Thursday (after a Monday pop) was a barnstorming 3 down days. I'm talking at least a 50-60 point correction.

Well, the market is herded into that spot for sure. And wouldn't GS like to just screw over everyone chasing performance for an entire quarter only to see the last few days blow up spectacularly?

Well its a thought anyways....

Update 5PM: For once the NYAD is not leading prices. Albeit it is only one day thing for now but still...]
Lots of stocks going parabolic.  Nasdaq 100 seems intent on making a new high above the April 2059 peak. We'll see. Closed at 2023.  In 2007 the Nasdaq as a whole peaked in November versus October for the S&P500 and DJIA. Although I don't expect the NASDAQ to make higher highs above April, the NDX seems doable certainly.   Afterall, the NDX100 diverged from the NASDAQ at the March 2009 lows by a squeaker and may do so here too.

DJIA  has resistance coming at 10900 and the 78.6% FIB is at 10906.

The SPX may be playing out in an expanding ending triangle such as the one that occurred at the April market peaks. 1158-1160 would hit the uptrend channel line and where [c] or [x] = [a] or [c] for Minor 2.

Squiggle count supports a burst above 1150 and then I could suppose a massive drop off. I'll go into Monday with that attitude anyways.
Has room to the parallel upper channel line. 
NDX doesn't have any good impulse count down from peak or even what can be called a leading diagonal (as I am calling the major indexes).  If it continues to power to a high above 2059, its going to be very extended to say the least.
Squiggle count. I'm using the expanding triangle shape. Thats the same playbook I used to navigate to the April peak. It worked fairly well then so we'll go with it for now again and see what happens.

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