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Friday, September 3, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 September [Update 6:10PM]

[Update 6:10PM: My top alternate, should the markets continue to show strength for far longer than we can bear at the moment, would be a double ZZ Minor 2 count. I have had this on my public list for a few days now but have not shown it yet on the blog site.

Basically the market would form an apex point (which it is doing as we speak) and instead of breaking down, it breaks up on a final [c] wave of [y] of Minor 2 and forming the biggest, baddest bear wedge you ever seen

In essence the next down move would resemble an "e" wave (although it would be labeled (b) of [y].  Once (a) of [y] forms a solid top, we could set the apex point which would mark the turn point.

This would indeed create a bidless market if the DJIA reached toward 10900 again....

(I even have a neat conspiracy theory to go along with this for those that believe in that sort of thing - We'll call it the pre-election rally.  Basically the Administration orders the pumping of the markets at all costs figuring that will make people feel good and help the Democrats win the election.  Bearish sentiment surveys (such as AAII) also helps fuel algo buying. Then when the Congress is lost to the Republicans despite this, the Administration orders a "scorched earth" policy to help create panic and gain control (never let a good crisis go to waste) against a hostile Congress who is now looking to launch investigations on a lot of things particularly financial-related.  But it wouldn't matter.  Naturally the market would sell  hard anyways as the new Congress lets it be known the old ways of "bailout city" and cash for clunkers and all the other waste is over.  We get good old-fashioned gridlock which is what the Americans generally probably want right now. We get several flash crash events along the way down.  This then targets the algo's and HFTs and brings heat to them. Oh yes, P[3] would be in full glory then. No stopping it as the market leverage structure gets dismantled piece by piece.

PS - I don't believe this conspiracy story but I do think the Congress is going to switch control  - for better or worse - and that will help stall out the free-flowing bailouts and liquidity  which will ultimately have a negative effect on the markets. And I do think investigations will be launched - to at least slow the tide of spending - and I do think the next flash crash will bring heat on the HFT's.) 

[Update 4:38PM: Lets see if this count on the NYAD holds up. Double divergence practically.]

[Update 4:31PM: VIX closed below its lower BB. A quick move to a new low on Monday would complete a wedge pattern]
Maybe pop and drop come Tuesday but it shouldn't be over 1110.7 if the bear count is to survive.

So Minute [ii] up is the count. I figured it end bullishly to give the long weekend time for the bullish sentiment to stew some more. Maybe the AAII survey next week will make a remarkable turnaround. Judging from comments, it should improve at the least.

Next week bigger volume should come back somewhat.

At any rate, a pullback is due soon and closing the gap up created today would be a fair target.
Minute [ii] could already be over.
I'll have more charts later as data rolls in.
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