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Saturday, September 25, 2010

Weekend Charts and Stuff [Update Sat 1:30PM]

[Update 1:20PM: A mere smattering of stocks that can be argued are in the parabolic stage of a 3 stage rise. And yet despite this, the market has not yet revisited April market peaks.  What happens when all these "pop"? The main idea is that when the mania on each of these comes to an end, they will go bust much like all the rest that have done so over the years.  On a spilt-adjusted basis, BIDU is trading near $1000/share.  P/E 102.  EPS: A whopping 96 cents/share.  Nothing changes folks. ]
Sentiment in the dollar is low. But it could be missing the final subwaves.
Challenging the top of the flash crash candle but its flanked by a resistance ridge. Note the subdued OBV.
The Nasdaq may be the last index running in the end. 
Pushed out Intermediate (1) to May 2011.  13 months. New Congress coming.  Positive for stocks? I don't see how.  If anything we will get a high level of gridlock and every administrative and Fed move will be more scrutinized.  Social mood demands it.
VIX weekly at long term RSI support.
Courtesy of Sentiment Trader showing the AAII 4-week moving average. The way the week ended, there is a good chance AAII will have even more bullish numbers out next week.
Here is another interesting chart from Sentiment Trader for those who have a very long term perspective. This is something Prechter would argue in that bear markets don't end on a high amount of "Hold" ratings.  Bear markets end on a high amount of Sell ratings.  At the 2009 low, the amount of Sell ratings did not even match the 2002 mark. Even the amount of Buy ratings may be high considering it could go well below 10.

So what would I expect to see with this over the years to a true bear market ending? For the BUY ratings to go even lower, sell ratings to go much higher. The Hold ratings are likely peaking and will begin to turn down and start to feed the sell ratings, etc.
Another look at NYAD. This chart has kept me sane lately in that I realize it must finish "playing out".  Finally a crack on Friday's move up.  We'll keep an eye on this thing.

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