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Monday, November 1, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 November [Update 5:45PM]

[Update 5:45PM: My NYAD chart keeps me sane and has kept me from blowing up my account beyond recognition.  Patiently awaiting for it to resolve and provide more clarity. However the RSI may be cluing us in that another correction down is immanent perhaps. Minor 3 of (5) of [5] has the "right look" and is longer than 1.  A channel line bounce would then mark 4 perhaps.]
[Update 5:02PM: Here is another look at the NDX.  The only blue box area was back in the middle of wave (iii) where we expect it along with peak RSI strength.  Now wave (v) has extended along with wave (iii) but has all overlap upward zigzags. Again, prices should collapse if this was an ED pattern as ED's are supposed to signal exhaustion.]
Three waves down from peak today.

Triangles can take longer to trace than one has the patience for.  The triangle I have been tracking over the past several sessions may have had its true [E] wave down today after hitting its [D] peak earlier today. The triangle would be an ascending triangle with 1196 as the upper boundary line.

The key pivot is where the [C] wave is marked at 1171.7. This cannot be breached or the triangle is confirmed busted.
Wlsh5000. Need only make a new high out of the triangle is the only requirement.
The above triangle scenario is not a sure thing of course. The NDX may have finished an ending diagonal and if it did, look for prices to break down further.
Again the SPX is struggling at the 200week MA.  And thus the open gap at 1197-1202. If there is anything that technically spells "bear market" long term, prices below the 200MA would be one such thing that is highly looked at.
Tight closing price range over the last 9 days on the S&P500. Lots of long dojis. Distribution? Yeah I'd say there is some of that going on.
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