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Monday, November 15, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 November [Update 7:28PM]

[Update 7:28PM: I am sensing a slightly differing dymanic at play here in the usual "wash-rinse-repeat" world of fiscal bailout mechanics. The Irish just may just balk at being made perpetual debt slaves:
I concur with Karl D's thinking

Why not just default and get it over with? Sooner or later, the psychological framework of BAILOUT WORLD will change into "Hey, I think we'll try something different...why don't you just eat my debt instead because perpetual debt bondage may be worse?"

[Update 7:13PM: Close-up squiggle count. You can already see that prices have fallen back to the ascending triangle upper boundary line. I think a minor 4 would require lower prices to the previous sub wave four price range.  So hence the lower value of that Minute [iv] of 3 is shown below on the Wilshire. In SPX prices this support is the 1171 mark or so. Thats 28 points down from today's close.

Overlapping waves down so far suggests corrective waves which is of course consistent with the Minor wave 4 of Intermediate (C) of P[2] view.]
[Update 4:55PM: Update on the DJIA and its Supercycle line. It closed beneath or near the line again. If the market were to have a severe selloff, it has proven in 2010 that it occurs from this line as it has in January and twice in May including the flash crash. SO....I'm not saying the market is going to have a severe selloff from these levels, all I am saying is that conditions may be ripe. Well at the least, I expect a mild selloff for lower Wave 4 prices.
Today certainly had that "corrective feel" about it even though the first part of the day was mildly positive.

The primary count is that Minor wave 4, some type of  multi-week sideways wave is playing out.  The top squiggle count is that some kind of small double zigzag down for the [a] of 4 is playing out. Remember a single ZZ corrects a certain percentage of price. If the market determines that price requires more correction, it will double the pattern to a double ZZ. My best guess is thats what may be happening here for the first leg of Minor 4.

So a double ZZ for Minute [a] of Minor 4 would be the top squiggle guess for now. So that means eventually we'll see lower stock prices this week. I'm still liking the 1170-1180 range for a price low for Minor 4.  Certainly it can correct lower in price. But hey, lets just see what happens first. 1170 area is major support for now.

Can the market maintain a shallow correction above 1190? That is possible but if so, you have to have some kind of  price/time factor. Shallow prices means more time would likely be needed.  More price correction would imply less time.  Its up to the market.

But it also has to have the "right look". And a correction to 1170 range would look pretty decent.

I use the Wilshire for form
Here is the SPX.  My general thinking is it would look best if wave 4 had lower prices. The lower prices often occur on the [a] wave. Hence, a double ZZ count.
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