Custom Search

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 November [Update 10:55PM]

[Update 10:55PM: NYAD count now shows a wave 4 in development.  Will there be a wave 5? How low will 4 go? Will a break of the long term trendline result in a terrible crash?  Ponderings. But for now we'll see how this count pans out. I said it would likely take 50-60 SPX points to produce a decent NYAD wave 4 down.]
Busy day today no chance to post until now.

Primary count is still Minor 4 of (C) of P[2]. Although it got pretty heated today when the market lost trend line support, the selling eased a bit when it got near support.

I have been calling for 1170 area since we painted a Minor 3 at SPX 1225+. We have now approached that area.

Best guess is wave [a] of Minor 4 is playing out and may have one more down move to form a double ZZ [a] wave. EWI generally had a lower Minor 4 target (1155 - 1165). I certainly cannot argue with eventual lower prices here. The main theme though is if this is Minor wave 4 of (C) the price low of Minor 4 should be consistent with a wave four. 1129 certainly cannot be breached as this is where we have Minor wave 1 marked.

On the other hand, wave 4 should keep a certain shallow, somewhat elevated price level compared to the overall structure we are referencing. So 1155 would be on a low end of things if it hits those kinds of retrace prices.

Guessing a missing wave or so.
Remember, wave 4 would have the right "look". And so far, it is shaping up to be that way. A move to 1160 would look pretty good. But then some buying pressure would have to come in and form either a triangle, or a flat.

So we know what to generally look for and now we need to see how the market follows through to fulfill the primary count of Minor 4 of (C).  

blog comments powered by Disqus