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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 November [Update 9:30PM]

[Update 9:30PM: It amazing if you were a casual observer you'd think the dollar would be at all-time lows. Yet it has been over 32 months since the all-time low.  The great double hump impulse [1]-[2], (1)-(2) is a familiar bottoming formation. The sheer duration and size suggests the dollar will achieve great things much to the chagrin of the FED no doubt.

"Don't fight the FED?"  Buy their dollars ironically and you will be fighting the FED and the wave pattern suggest you might be quite successful over the long haul.

Fight the Fed by buying their very own dollars....yes. Thats about a perfect contrarian setup.
Bonds. Major non-confirmation. 30 years leading the shorter duration. Rising yield deflation. Langoliers....
The NYMO was pretty oversold which supports the 1173 as a wave [a] low.
Primary count is that Minute [a] of Minor 4 ended at the 1173 SPX low.  The market would then be working on Minute [b] of Minor 4.

The Minor 4 count is interesting in that at some point, a [b] wave of either a flat, expanded flat, triangle or running triangle means that a bullish [b] of 4  wave must play out somewhere along the way and that this [b] wave would head back and perhaps challenge the highs and even make new highs in the case of a running triangle or expanded Minor 4 flat.

So at some point we must label the price low of wave [a].  This is where it gets tricky.  We very well may have seen the price low of [a], yet we cannot be sure it needs another move.

We'll adjust if needed but at the moment, there is no reason to suspect 1173 was not the [a] price low. It was major support and we expected it to hold.

The structure "looks right" as a 54 point [a] wave dip in prices seems about right and a bounce at the midpoint axis of the previous sub-wave [iv] ascending triangle.
A closer look using the Wilshire for form. Price retrace to the midpoint of the previous wave [iv] ascending triangle is near-perfect theory on where one expects prices to retrace for Minor 4.
Notice the bounce off the blue base channel. If it were to hold the base channel in a continuing sideways move, it may form a Minor 4 ascending triangle.
Keeping an eye on the NYAD count.
And the bigger picture
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