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Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 November

The Wilshire5000 broke above the ascending triangle (but only by a few points) which was the only requirement of a triangle configuration. So it can be said that there may be enough waves for a complete pattern. However the SPX did not break above its triangle. The SPX tested 1196 resistance for a third plus time so one has to think that resistance will be broken above that at least for a spurt and the 1197-1202 gap will be challenged or outright conquered for at least a bit.
The DJIA is still flirting with the Supercycle channel line. I'm convinced the market feels this line. And this line represents insanity pricing.
The NASDAQ100 is ever-chugging upwards.  It could still be an ED pattern, its just big and not yet finished perhaps. A quick 200 point selloff would be the result of an ED pattern.
The Wilshire5000 is the overarching index that will determine "wave 2" or P[2]. It still has a ways to go to a new high.  Note the advancers are on a steady decline on every stab upward. Once they run out of buyers, a flash potential is once again in play.

The challenge of Lehman Day once again.
The CRB index finally hit its 38% retrace. Though commodities are "on fire" it just goes to show that the heavily oil-weighted index really hasn't been on fire compared to 2008.

Remember I suggested the other night when oil breaches $85, stocks have topped in the past year(s) . Oil closed at $84.37.
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