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Monday, November 22, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 November

Primary count remains that the market is in Minute [b] of Minor 4. It could be a [b] wave of a triangle, flat, or expanded flat but in each case, the expected form of the Minute [b] is a 5-3-5 zigzag up.  After an initial five waves up from the recent 1173 pullback low, there should be a small (b) of [b] playing out.  Then a bullish (c) of [b] up.

Thats the best interpretation of the entire structure to date and so far Minor 4 seems to be behaving in an expected manner since we painted the top of Minor 3.  A Minor wave 4 is expected to be a large sideways corrective pattern and guessing every squiggle is not to be expected. However the overall theme is that once a solid and nearly complete Minor 4 pattern emerges (triangle, flat, combination, etc), we should be able to see a Minor 5 wave up.

So far we only have some pieces of the total Minor 4 pattern so we are taking our best guesses in squiggles.

Looking for another 5 waves up. Looking for (c) = (a). Inverted H&S pattern also.
Here is an example of a bearish downward flat for Minor 4 although I only drew it this way because of the wave channel and a triangle would be boring to imagine at this point. However, its just as likely a triangle or more regular flat develops although I do like the idea of a nasty [c] wave of Minor 4 that breaks 1173 support yet would hold above 1150 somewhere. Then the final wave 5 rally may only squeak past 1227 for a nominal high. Wall Street awards billions in bonuses for another up year under the belts....
 WLSH60. Prices still holding above the base channel.
NYAD count. Keeping an eye on it

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