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Monday, November 29, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 November [Update 7:50PM]

[Update 7:50PM: Updated Wilshire 10 minute chart. It looks decent for now.  At some point though, if this is Minor wave 4, then the [b] wave would look better if it were to break upwards to a certain extent. So far it has been weak and unable to stick its nose above major resistance for a spell.
The price action reminds me of late November/early December 2009 when the SPX at that time had broken above to new highs and then tread sideways in a tight range for a number of weeks prior to breaking higher in late December/January. At that time we had the "Dubai" crisis (that seems like "preschool" stuff compared to now where we have graduated to Irish crisis)

At any rate, there is no definitive pattern emerging just yet for minor wave 4 although we likely have at least the [a] wave marked correctly. We can imagine a triangle but its ultimate form has not been revealed.

This SPX imagines a short triangle although its probably not right.
At some point though you would think prices would break a bit higher for a [b] wave peak as suggested below on the Wilshire chart.
The NYAD count updated. I am looking for a breaking move either way in the NYAD. More specifically though a possible move higher that may "lead" prices and give us a clue if Minor wave 5 is coming.  Nothing has emerged just yet.
Longer term is getting close again to a long term channel line.
The dollar count is playing out nicely. We now have overlap which confirms the move down was a three wave move which is corrective
Keeping an eye on GDOW. It is in danger of breaking EW rules if it keeps dropping in price. It could be an out-lier index.  Note the ALT count which is basically a double Intermediate zigzag.
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