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Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 November

Still pushing in zigzag patterns.  Its possible that the market is pursuing an Ending Diagonal pattern yet again.

Like triangle patterns, you have to let ED patterns mature. After all both are considered "triangle" shaped. Both patterns consist of ABC zigzags and many times we tend to want to label them too early. After a couple of "false endings" one can give up on it and figure its not a triangle or ED (which is exactly why it can drag on and then turn at the precise moment you give up on it)

What could be happening is that a small degree fourth wave triangle is coupling itself to a small degree ED pattern, thus all the zigzag moves both up and down as of late. A combination triangle-ED pattern is a double sign of imminent reversal and the ensuing selloff should be swift and violent.

The combo triangle -ED pattern occurred on the DJIA at the January 2010 peak although the other indexes didn't necessarily support that combo. This time however even the NASDAQ 100 has what could be a very nice ED pattern.

Will it pan out? One cannot blow of an ED pattern in a high-beta index such as the NDX without pausing to consider the consequences if it is correct.
Whats interesting is the VIX may be in a leading diagonal triangle UP.
Well tomorrow should answer some questions.  If we are to get a bullish up wave that holds then consider the triangle having been broken out of in a small degree wave three of five.

Dax count:
The DJIA managed to finally squeak a close above my upper Supercycle channel line. In January when it had a squeaker close above, the market collapsed in price out of a triangle-ED pattern.

In April it managed to get above it and backtest as support over a period of 8 days or so and then broke a bit higher to the April peak. Then of course it got hammered once it dropped back below. Then the rebound from the flash crash bounced back to the line and got hammered down yet again....

So the line is there and the market feels it.
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