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Thursday, November 4, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 November [Update: 8:52PM]

[Update 8:52PM: I was expecting this break under the long term trendline. If its an ABC pattern, then it needs to turn ASAP.]
[Update 8:17PM: BPSPX also paints an interesting chart pattern.
Sentiment Trader finally had its short term readings go extreme and its long term skyrocketed to 41%. The April peak was a bit higher at I think at 47%. Anything over 35% is something to take heed. Over 40 even more so.

So you see it is not without reason why I remain bearish longer term. When viewing this data in the terms of a long-term bear market and particularly a Primary wave [2] wave that has gone on for 20 months, one has to remain vigilant.  It is from these types of extreme readings that the May 6th Flash Crash occurred. 
Their Composite Model remains quite elevated and particularly the 21 day MA
[Update 7:10PM The rip through the upper Bollinger Band was very violent. Looking back a recent history I can find a few other places such a rip occurred. Will it have the same outcome? I cannot say it will, but I cannot help but notice it either.]
[Update 7PM: An interesting weekly Wilshire chart. I think the song remains the same here somewhat. And Wall Street will rip it the other way once they have all the bagholders lined up. Do we really think things have changed?]
[Update 5:25PM: Some charts are actually panning out very nicely.

AA hit $13.62. I had $13.63 targeted.
Gold appears to be now in a extended Primary wave [5]. This makes sense as wave (1) and (3) within [5] are about equal.
I put this on my public list last night and was targeting the center trendline with a new high.  It hit it.
Restaurants! Is there any possible wider moat (that was sarcasm!) GTFOOH! CMG looks to be in an advanced stage 4 parabola. Looks like oil in 2008.  PEAK CHIPOTLE IS HERE. THE WORLD IS RUNNING OUT OF CHIPOTLE.
NYAD still taking shape.  
A closer look.

Above the Supercycle channel again this year. But this time its at higher price levels and somehow, things seem a bit frenzied and getting out of control.  Parabolic even.

New 2010 index highs on just about everything, well, at least we cleared that up.

Dollar cannot catch a bid.  But soon I think it must. At the least, its hanging in there.

Oil broke over $85 and in the past, stocks have struggled when that happened. Last being in April 2010 and before that in May 2008.  The commodity surge will squeeze businesses and set up some disasters no doubt.

So the overall count? For now simplify things a bit and look at short term wave patterns.  The SPX broke out of an ascending triangle which is likely a small degree fourth wave. Todays power move was likely a small degree wave three (or three thru five) of five within....what? That is the question.

Looking at the DJIA, the best count, again in a simple manner, is just to consider April 2010 high as Intermediate (A) of P[2] and the market is working on finding Minor wave 3 top of Intermediate (C).
Again, as EWI pointed out last night, the count to the 2007 high was a crooked, tough slog.  Corrective patterns always are as I still feel no doubt that P[2] is a very large corrective pattern in the big scheme of things. There is no doubt that sentiment is getting extreme, the question is how extreme will it get? How high will prices go? And how much time is required for P[2]?

We are coming up on a Fibonacci 21 months for P[2] in first week of December. If the capital gains tax rate does not get changed a big downdraft prior to January would seem to be possible.

Personally I think we crossed the event horizon and things are accelerating to the final endgames. A final breach above the Supercycle channel line represents this well.

Ben Bernanke was anointed Time's "Man of the Year"  at the beginning of this year. Now he is being heavily questioned by just about everyone. Afterall, I think people can more than sense the whole thing is an unwindable Ponzi (at least not safely) . The arrogance and hubris of the Federal Reserve is reaching an all-time high.
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