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Friday, December 10, 2010

E-minis [Update 3:30PM]

[Update 3:30PM: If I put the 50% marker in the middle of the blue box area it points to a target of.....1246.... likely sometime Monday which would be almost an exact Fibonacci 21 months from the March 9th 2009 low. Of course Monday is the 13th which is of course a Fibonacci number.] 

[Update 2:12PM: A close-up look of the proposed Minute [iv] triangle. Wilshire has better form and the breakout is more sharp]
[Update 1:40PM: I reconfigured my SPX to match my e-mini count I posted today. Everything points toward 1246.  Triangle breakout target and also [v] = [i].

But it sure looks like it wants to rollover.]
[Update 12:45PM: Wedge?]
ORIGINAL POST
I re-drew the e-mini chart to show my top alternate count. As you can see, it actually works fairly well. But this count depends on that final Minute [iv] and Minute [v] panning out.  If it does than we have a valid Minor 5 count I think. Again, I am biased toward at least SPX 1246 as this is a minimal acceptable wave relationship (.618 times price length of wave 1) between Minor wave 1 and Minor 5.

The dual inverted H&S targets are also at 1250 SPX. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TQFPboQQviI/AAAAAAAAIMk/-Lj2CEVn5SU/s1600/spxdaily.png Hence my (minimal) target range of 1246-1250 on the cash index lately for the top of Minor 5 of Intermediate (C). If it gets there via this pathing I show below without dropping and violating this count, then this count becomes the primary count.

Sentiment Trader http://www.sentimentrader.com/ reported 41% readings on one side of the ledger, and 0% on the other. Only the third time since 2000 they have shown this bullish bias sentiment setup.  In other words there are no current bearish readings (low sentiment).  Also the "dumb" money is above 70% again at 71% and the "smart" money is at 33% creating a spread that we need to pay attention to.

So if we do keep going up without a serious shakeout in sentiment (which usually only occurs with a price pullback), we must consider it the top of P[2] itself. Hence my count below to account for it if it pans out that way.

Still early obviously but I got to go to work. Good Luck!
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