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Thursday, December 23, 2010

E-minis [Update 2:30PM]

[Update 2:30PM: That would make a nice wave (iv) if it holds.]

[Update 11:43AM: Best guess on squiggles is that the market is tracing (iv) of [v] in some kind of triangle or complex sideways combo. The red horizontal line is my marker as the next wave four, in this case (iv), usually maintains prices above the previous subwave four low, iv of (iii), as a general guideline.  Hence the red line. For the SPX thats about 1254.]
[Update 11:33AM: I have two competing versions of the dollar at the moment.  I am leaning toward a series of one's and two's. We'll keep both options open.  There is actually not much difference. They both ultimately point up I suppose.

This chart eliminates the "bad print" cancelled trade lows.
This chart keeps the bad print.
[Update 10:52AM: Wave charting the AAII 4 week MA.  Nice EW pattern wouldn't you agree?]

[Update 10:40AM: Total capitulation in sentiment to the trend. Latest American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey data. Charts courtesy of]

I have no clear count on the last up squiggles just yet. Best guess is a sideways wave (iv) of [v] (not shown).
Best guess for the dollar hasn't changed.
Sentiment Trader's sentiment indicators levels are 48% (bearish extremes - optimistic sentiment) to 0% (bullish extremes).  Highest all year and the dumb/smart money spread hit 50%.  There is really nothing to add as this high level of bullishness condition is persisting for the last few weeks.

It will correct as it always does. Its a matter of timing and what price pattern plays out when it does correct. Will we see heavy selling and impulsing down? Or, if this is a true bull market as most everyone says, will we see big corrective patterns and a more easy landing for prices?

As they say, time will tell.

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