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Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 December [Update 7:57PM]

[Update 7:57PM: I'll stick with my bond count even though sentiment is getting low as EWI reported tonight (dropped to 13% Daily Sentiment Index).  It can of course go lower and linger a bit longer since it just made the move lower today.

I am looking for the first subwave (1) of [3] up to advance prices (or yield prices in this case to be specific). It is this principle that I derive my subwave count for (1) so far.  If you look you can see 5 waves up already which suggests a wave two down so I may have this labeled wrong. However, I won't change this count's squiggles just yet. I'd like to see resistance at 4.85 challenged first maybe even a move toward 5% before that wave (2) down kicks in for real. We'll see. Either way, this is another market I feel I have had a good read on lately.

Incidentally the second chart (10 yr) is in even a stronger impulse pattern and that supports my squiggles below]
10 year is really inside a strong push up which suggests a sub-third wave push.  Again, I look for (1) of [3] to advance or challenge yield price highs.
[Update 7:37PM; One last show of this SPX inverted H&S pattern (x2) again.  I first suggested the wave moves here http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TNin7IzAvBI/AAAAAAAAIB8/HgQrYynexr8/s1600/spxdaily.png on 8 November. Pullback to 1170, then move toward 1250. I have been pretty consistent with that thinking for the past 5-6 weeks and it has panned out nicely.  I added the 1246 target for wave 5 on 1 December here  http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TPbIXvZDXLI/AAAAAAAAIIk/3NoJ3060qdQ/s1600/spxdaily.png

So hey, say what you will about wave theory, sometimes it works out great.  
[Update 7:17PM: One reason my primary count is that P[2] is topped (until proven otherwise) is indicators below such as the McClellan Summation Index.  Divergences let us see the turns and we are seeing a huge weakness that suggests a flash crash of mega proportions may almost be upon us.]
[Update 5:06PM: Here is a revamped SPX chart which may soon become my primary chart depending on what the market does over the next 2 days as you can see. If this chart pans out and wave [v] = [i], then our target range is likely between 1252-1256.  1256 is the Intermediate (1) of P[1] price low and this is a key resistance marker.  Wave twos often beach the previous wave one's first subwave one price range. And P[2] would be just another wave two following that guideline or trying awfully darn hard.

Note the November high price support. A pullback to the November price high, at the least, makes sense here. Then we must see if it can hold.]
ORIGINAL POST:
I am working on my top alternate chart which would see the market make another high and that the current pullback in prices is a sharp Minute [iv] of Minor 5.  Rather than argue the top is definitely in, I'd rather find ways to seek other potential counts if possible. The main reason is that the triangle I have had labeled as Minute [iv]  http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TQfiXedqTcI/AAAAAAAAIPU/zmQh92AK3mo/s1600/wlsh60.png may be too small and could instead be a subwave triangle of Minute [iii].

Additionally my NYAD has yet to make a new high to fulfill its extended Primary 5th wave count.  Also there has not yet been a 5 wave impulse pattern down yet so we must look for this to be a potential corrective Minute [iv]

So overall the count would look something like this http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TQkY7vzr0FI/AAAAAAAAIQQ/sg2BBNRg5RM/s1600/wlsh60.png

Here would be the potential squiggle chart. I use the Wilshire because it shows the best form. The SPX is practically the same and I'll re-do that later and post.

Guideline of alternation in play for Minute [ii] and [iv].

CONCLUSION:
If Minor 5 is over, the market will let us soon know. A breach of my blue box area shouldn't occur on a wave [iv] if thats whats going on. If my blue box gets breached, then likely the market has reversed and a bearish trend would set in.

Naturally if this new version of Minute [iv] and [v] pan out, we would again have a low volume holiday melt up to a new high.  Year would end near a high, and record bonuses all-around for Wall Street. I am sure glad for that. I'd hate for for them to not get a shiny new Mercedes for the New Year.

I haven't run the numbers on the SPX, but I'll do that tonight and post a revamped chart and some more charts later.
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