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Thursday, December 16, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 December [Update 8:37PM]

[Update 8:37PM: I am rooting for GDOW to fulfill another wave high. Like the Wilshire, its one of my favorite indexes on a long term scale.
The longer term shows the 2007 top was likely a textbook extended fifth wave of cycle size. I love that count as there really is no other satisfying way to count it in my opinion. Every corrective is a small zigzag which is probably a trait of extended wave 5's in general as you may have gleamed from some of my other extended wave five counts

Also note how it is struggling with the 200 week MA.  Telling.
[Update 8:10PM: GOLD
Well, gold has moved into the final wave [e] of what could be a Minor 4 triangle.  It has certainly worked off its overbought condition nicely while maintaining a somewhat elevated price.

Triangle target is higher above $1500 - actually triangle target would be around $1550 or so.  Yes that seems absurd but thats about how you compute the breakout target using the width of the triangle added to the breakout spot, in this case the upper triangle boundary line. Note how the 38% and 62% Fib lines match up with price peaks. Lets see how it goes, its should be exciting!

If all this happened, of course the dollar is likely to break down low here in a final bearish dip.
I still am looking for a possible burst to my upper channel line. Thats at least $1500. This is log scale so its scrunched a bit up there so its hard to tell. Also note how the 38% and 62% Fib lines match up with significant peaks just like on the chart above.]

[Update 7:10PM: Wilshire always shows the best form I think.  Check out the revamped channel lines that connects price peak of the lower portion with wave [iii] and [ii] and [iv] connect. Viewing it this way, having the end of Minute [iv] with today's low makes sense. Note that Minute [iv] retraced into the middle axis of the previous subwave (iv) of [iii] triangle which is very satisfying and typical when the subwave four of three is a triangle.

Ok now that I posted all these cool charts lets hope they pan out!]
[Update 6:35 PM: The INDU had me a bit baffled yesterday but I revamped the chart to show Minute [iv] as an expanded flat.  We'll see what happens but as you can see,  a new high would not surprise us as we have a possible solid count below.]
Since the high a few days ago, we have what appears to be corrective overlapping waves down on the Wilshire.

So we'll have to go with the count that Minute [iv] bottomed today at 1232.85 SPX. I was looking for a pullback to at least November price support at 1227-1229 but it did not quite make it.

The impulse pattern up that started from the low today is a textbook impulse which leads me to believe that Minute [v] of Minor 5 is now in the works. I upped the Minor 5 target to 1256-1260 range because the pullback was only to 1232.85, not 1227ish.  1256 is the price low of (1) of P[1], an important wave marker.
I expected Minute [iv] to be a sharp wave as Minute [ii] was a slogging sideways flat.  Minute [iv] has been indeed a sharp wave, I labeled it as a double ZZ or perhaps better as a flat-zigzag-zigzag.

Note the textbook EW impulse pattern. I must assume for now that Minute [v] is starting its advance after such a pretty pattern. Also note all the waves down for Minute [iv] are choppy overlapping which we must assume is a corrective pattern.
And today was a likely bounce spot as the NYAD had reached its long-term channel line.  I will give it the benefit of the doubt in that it will make a new high to fulfill its wave count.
If the market requires further correction, it sure is masking its intention well. The impulse pattern up today was strikingly perfect.
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