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Thursday, December 2, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 December [Update 8:20PM]

[Update 8:20PM: Oil is once again solidly over the $85 barrel mark. In the past, stocks struggled and either peaked or continued down.]
[Update 7:36PM: Banks are still way under their 2010 peak.  The EW rule here is that C must finish higher than [d]. And yes I got creative with the wave (1) hehe.]
[Update 7:01PM:]
I am taking the approach that the first subwave one, in this case an Intermediate wave (1), should try and advance prices. So a count is starting to form. Lets see how it does. Higher yields will not be good for all the massive amounts of debt that is out there. Also higher credit card interest rates will accelerate the credit bubble pop even more.
Perhaps GOLD is going to run to the upper channel line. It would seem thats what it wants to do. That is around $1500 round number resistance mark.
Maybe a wave 4 running triangle is forming. 
This bear market P[2] is full of places where huge wave one's and subwave one's occur. Primary count is that Minute [i] of Minor 5 has either found its peak or will shortly. Then a wave [ii] would occur, perhaps back to test 1200 SPX for support.

Now being that the subwave [i] is huge matters not I think if you look at the fractals of the entire P[2] rally.  The first waves after a pullback is finished have always been where the bears get skewered. I am counting on the same situation here. So after a wave [ii] pullback, a wave [iii] cannot necessarily be expected to extend a great distance. That in turn limits wave [v] of 5.

Also note that the current structure has a leading diagonal for wave 1 and therefore do not expect an ending diagonal wave 5. To have an LD at the beginning and then an ED at the end would be most unlikely in my opinion.
Note the ALT counts generally will keep us on the right side as even if this is only a [b] wave of Minor 4, a pullback should be due for either a [c] wave in a flat or a [c] wave in a triangle.  Currently my primary count shows wave [ii] which means 1200 may hold as support.  I think that 1200 is a key support level near term.
Update NYAD count. It need only squeak a new high to fulfill the wave count.

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