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Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 December [Update 7:33PM]

[Update 7:33PM: Wave [v] on the INDU need not be a long wave as wave [i] was not either.]
[Update 6:56PM: I call this stage of wave counting probing for the wave 5 count.  Top calling? Nah, just think of this as placing a 5 on top of a wave structure and anticipating that the next correction should correct the entire 5 wave structure structure as a minimum. That is EW theory at its most basic.  So no matter what comes next, a correction of the entire Minor 5 wave structure of (C), to at least subwave [iv] of minor 3 (1170) is called for and "normal". The path it takes to get there is of course the key to the next structure taking place. And then we keep connecting structures.

So 1170 would be our target no matter what the count.
And if you don't want to correct the larger multi-month pattern, consider the correction that is called for at one degree lower. To the subwave (iv) of [iii] would be even shorter marker that one could use as a target. Again, if you think its a 5 wave structure, a correction of that structure, at a minimum, is what comes next.

Using the Wilshire for form, wave [v] = [i] a short distance ahead.  So we may just get some sideways (iv), then (v) of [v] of 5. 13833 would be 72% retrace of P[1]. Thats about the sweet spot I would say.
[Update 6:08PM]
Rooting for the GDOW to make its new wave high
A cycle wave corrective for the Nasdaq100. Four points shy of beating its 2007 peak. The only requirement is that it beats the 2007 high.
A valid count on AMZN. CMF and OBV may be betraying its hand here.
Apple defying gravity for a bit. Look at the long-winded negative divergence on the RSI.

From here on out we must be alert for a reversal. The NYAD finally fulfilled my wave count today.

As far as the squiggles goes, its seems to be pushing up in zigzag moves. This could be a trait of P[2] in which it has been tending to make expanding ending diagonal patterns at tops (such as my count in April) that don't count well rather than the easily-seen "wedge" ending diagonal.

So I'll speculate that perhaps thats what we have here.  So if thats the case expect a move down into 1245 - 1247 range to test support and then reversal for the final push (v) of [v] of 5.

Again, the Wilshire shows excellent form. We have other alternates available to us but lets roll with this for now.
And the perfect little wedge move however does reveal itself on the NYAD. New high fulfills my wave count. Now we must be alert for a new structure (down) to develop. Also we await confirmation of this count.
A mature wave pattern.  Thats what we do here. Count waves.

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