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Thursday, December 9, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 December [Update 7:20PM]

[Update 7:20PM: The dollar chart looks best I think in all-hours view.  I know, yeah, they canceled the trades where I have the low but I don't care. You can cancel the trades, but the stops that were triggered and  the selloff to the low did certainly happen. So to me it is legit and its still on this TOS.

So hence a possible wave structure. The next few days/week is important.  I also like how the subwaves of wave (iii) channel nicely. The "control" for this count is where I have wave (i) high of 78.51. This cannot be breached until at least we have a Minute [i] top. Which means we need a new high here prior to any breach of 78.51 were it to occur.
The primary count is Minute [ii] of Minor 5 is playing out. However I am strongly considering changing the primary count to Minute [iii] topped at 1235 a few days ago and perhaps Minute [iv] is playing out.

But this will depend on the nature of any further price pullback and/or consolidation patterns.

But overall I am open to whatever the market decides to reveal over the coming week. So the nature of any further pullback or consolidation waves will help determine the overall picture.  As of the moment, the wave structure has not yet traced enough information to determine the best count although we have some definite choices.

You can see this alternate count on the Wilshire too.
Still shy of the double pattern target of 1246-1250 SPX which, in the big scheme of things, is what I am focusing on. At 1246 SPX, wave 5 would have a .618 times wave 1 price relationship. This kind of minimal wave relationship between waves 1 and 5 is preferable when wave 3 is extended as it seems to be the case here.

But is Minor 4 even over yet?  We must keep that as an alternate.
10 minute chart.  Waves seem corrective up today and yesterday as if a wave [iv] consolidation is taking place (see alternate count)
Bonds. I feel good about the count and the general rule that the first subwave (1) will try and advance prices.
Banks went to where I showed they would and fulfilled a wave pattern (although there is no sign yet of reversal)
Gold may be in a wave 4 running triangle.  Its my preferred count with $1500+ as a target. An obvious break of prices below the triangle ($1330) means something else is happening. So at least we have a tight price pattern.
Oil hit $90. Juts wonderful for our economy.
NYAD hasn't made a new high and is not leading prices higher. This is one I'm watching closely. Subwaves of Minute degree aren't easily diagnosed.
I haven't talked much about sentiment lately but most who read this site are aware of the still very high survey readings of AAII and Investor Intelligence.  Sentiment Trader reported again their cumulative score has breached over 40% again which is getting a high degree of bullishness.

In the context that this is P[2], that is a warning flag. 

Here is another measure of sentiment in the CPC chart 3 and 10 day averages.

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