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Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 August [Update 7:40PM]

[Update 7:40PM: There are probably many reasons for the bulls to expect a big rebound to come. Its a new month (and a lot of times that has been bullish in recent past), there are some positive divergences floating around including the one on the NYMO below and we have fairly bearish sentiment in certain surveys (AAII). In addition, we have both trendline support (3 touches) and horizontal support intact. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TH1r68Jf-3I/AAAAAAAAHVQ/u5XCTDAft9w/s1600/wlshdaily.png

Add in that declining volume has diminished as this down move occurred over the past few weeks and it would seem that sellers are nearly exhausted. Throw in a dash of positive seasonality and you got a recipe for one last bull "hurrah" to wherever the algo's can take it.  From a wave standpoint, it could be easily argued merely a 3 wave move down so far....

However there are certainly bearish things going on too. Mainly the wave structure lacks a 5th wave down probably resulting in an unfinished structure. And despite every attempt so far of the bulls trying to get a sustainable rally going, prices have been lackluster to say the least and seemingly in a herding pattern of all or nothing.  It might be easier at this stage to produce nothing (herding to the downside) than it is to entice buyers to move this market back up toward 1100 SPX or even 1070 SPX.

But at any rate, the sideways motion of the 1040 - 1060 range is likely nearing an end. Or the beginning of nearing the end.  Volume should return in a bigger way next Tuesday.

It would be most delicious if the market spasmodically broke on an ebullient spike in the morning while breaking the downchannel upper line with force.  http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TH1n0WP4oiI/AAAAAAAAHVI/26rms7VBwOw/s1600/wlsh15.png

CNBC would be chattering and doing their usual bull smack only to see the market do what it did on the first trading day of 2nd September in 2008 (albeit that was post Labor Day).  http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/THWirvu01HI/AAAAAAAAHRs/bEQDiwrLN9k/s1600/spx60.png  A most bullish spasm followed by selling all day. (note where I have "orthodox 2" marked.)

Well we'll see. I actually don't mind higher prices. Its easier to enter a trade position at higher prices than it is languishing here yes? Nimble is the way to be. Yet it would be nice to see that 5th wave....
[Update 5PM: I use the Wilshire because it paints excellent trendlines and usually waves too.  Today's low was a third touch of the up trend line shown below.  Usually if bounces occur off these trendlines, they happen at least on the second touch. [Update: Actually looking at July 2009, it made 3 dips to form the trendline]

The market has reached an apex point at the very start of historically the worst month for stocks.
I remember 2008 when September opened, the market opened with a tremendous bullish spike only to sell hard right after and trapped a lot of bulls. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/THWirvu01HI/AAAAAAAAHRs/bEQDiwrLN9k/s1600/spx60.png


Would be a chance for a replay tomorrow perhaps. A very bullish rush out the door, only to collapse soon after.  Price action has been very squirrelly lately...

Original Post:
Primary count hasn't changed: Wave (v) of [i] of Minor 3 down.

Due diligence: If this bear count is going to fail us miserably, and the market goes full bull, tomorrow is likely the day that will happen.

There were no divergences on this morning's intra-day low as compared to yesterday's low between the DJIA, SPX and NASDAQ.  And then this afternoon's dip there were again no divergences with the morning price low. So we can conclude, at the least, a lack of bullish divergence during both of today's price lows on all 3 major indexes.  Usually if this was some sort of "bottom" area some kind of divergence would have developed. Doesn't have to, but they usually do and so far we have none.

In fact there has been a remarkable lack of any kind of divergences between intra-day prices:
(I haven't checked closing)

It all looks rather corrective, a consolidating period prior to a break of 1040. Will it happen? The waves suggest it will but only the market can decide when it is ready. Tomorrow is a new month. There could be an increase in volume and portfolio "adjustments".

Of course the bulls want to break over that down trend black line and create a squeeze. And then of course break over the larger downtrend channel line that is shown on the Wilshire chart lower down.
So we'll yet again keep the same primary count: Wave (v) of Minute [i] to a new price low under 1039 SPX.  And due to (i) and (iii) being practically equal, and 1010 still a ways below, we must be on the lookout for an extended wave (v) scenario.
Wilshire did though deviate slightly as compared to the 3 index chart above. I supposed that helped signal the rally from "b" to (iv).

E-minis

Monday, August 30, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 August

The overnight enthusiasm that the futures displayed was indeed overoptimistic by far. Having reached 1072.75 overnight, the cash index was not interested at all in attaining that level or above, not even peeking positive.  I was quite sure the bears (me) may be skewered a bit today as some futures traders were a bit, but that fear alleviated itself by the morning cash index open.

Excess optimism in the futures and a market that miserably fails to follow - that is bearish in my book.

So we'll keep the primary count I have been tracking for a while, and see if it pans out. Wave (v) need only finish below wave (iii) to be a valid 5 wave move.  But if (i) and (iii) were about the same size, wave theory suggests that wave (v) is likely to be an extended wave.

And also being that it would be preferable (yet not necessary) for Minute [i] of Minor 3 to advance prices lower, that also aligns with wave (v) being an extended wave.

All this depends on 1040 support being taken out.  What would the market do to catch the most off guard this week? I suppose by smashing through in a gap down under 1040 and selling hard on an extended wave (v) after an apparent "double bottom" BS.
I am not crazy about the count, even uncomfortable with it, but it keeps working for the most part. The fact that I'm uncomfortable with it makes me like it.  Crazy self-sentiment checks.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

E-minis (Sunday Night Edition) [Update 6:08AM]

[Update 6:08AM: As far as the "wedge" earlier it would be labeled an impulse - if thats what it turns out to be - there was no overlap of four and one.  I was merely pointing out a wedge shape as far as converging trendlines go - and the market is trying to make hay out of it - and could fail miserably as a result because its not a true overlapping wedge.

Anyways - good luck!  Certainly higher prices are good for bears cause I don't think they would last.

[Update 6AM: Initial thrust up takes a breather and gives back most gains over the last few hours. Europe is flat.

Remember, the earlier charts on this post are there as an alternate - I should have emphasized that - we at least need an alternate for instance for a move to 1075 SPX- how would we label it?

But if tonight's futures are unmatched today in the cash SPX index  - that is a sign of excess optimism perhaps. And would be certainly bearish.

The primary count can still be found here (in one form or another)  http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/THgwt37Sy3I/AAAAAAAAHTM/QG__JmIra68/s1600/spx30.png

We'll sort it all out in the end and certainly there is a heap of resistance at 1065-1072 zone.  Volume to break through above it - at least on first try? I have my doubts and they would be well-founded.   Good luck today!]
Perhaps too much bearishness (AAII survey was pretty bearish) with sellers possibly exhausted as the declining volume lessened as last week slogged on. Its tough to say how Monday will play. Will volume pick up any?

Now we have the last week of August summer vacation trading. The thing looks like a zigzag down (as we now have a ton of overlap on the e-minis) but I prefer a falling wedge if there is a big bull follow-through day to confirm it. Not sure about nested 1-2, as the second 1-2 would be almost bigger than the first which may not look right...unless the price falls apart right about here.
Minute [ii] of 3 in 2008 was also the result of a falling wedge http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/THWirvu01HI/AAAAAAAAHRs/bEQDiwrLN9k/s1600/spx60.png Retrace about 72%.

So the sharp rebound, so far, is indicative of a post wedge violent move.  Lets see if they can maintain elevated prices.
 The indexes do have converging trend-lines forming a wedge:
Well bonds look perhaps toppy on the weekly.  Very pronounced candle.
Should be a fun week. Very tough counting right now and very tough read on how sentiment is playing. Also still pre-Labor day.  

Friday, August 27, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 August

Well, the waves registered a new near term low, by mere ticks, in both the DJIA and SPX which is curious, as if it was obeying an EW rule of some sort. We then had an expanding shape rebound as suggested last night in this chart http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/THbPTevLYsI/AAAAAAAAHSM/EUuGJ_uDe1g/s1600/wlsh15.png which happened to be around 11175 which is what printed today.

So hey, lets just slap a wave (iv) up here, call it an expanding triangle with a fakeout "e" wave that will snooker everyone over the weekend,  and see what happens. (If only were that simple - hey what the heck!)

The RSI downtrend line is very curious on this 30 minute SPX. Suppose we have a minor gap up Monday to close the gap down and then sell hard. Hey a bear can dream yes?

We no doubt need to look at other combination counts though. This is a tricky market.

(Note: The ALT:[i] works with an orthodox Minor wave 1 low of 1040 SPX as EWI has marked.  This would mean Minute [i] did advance prices lower technically....)

Here is another curious EW problem: If this chart is accurate and wave (i) is nearly as long as wave (iii) - hence practically equal - this suggests a barnstorming wave (v) which would be the true extended wave in Minute [i]. This is of course dependent if this count is correct.

We are again at the top of the channel. Unless the channel gets shattered by a big bull move come next week,  There is no reason to abandon the near-term bear count.
Wilshire is doing its own thing. The problem for bears is there were a lot of divergences with today's low which usually suggests a multi-day rally and next week is still considered a low-volume vacation week as Labor Day is late this year.
I really haven't looked at a whole lot, so likely the readers caught a lot of good stuff today. 

FED worship. Like Benny can save the world.  He cannot repeal the Laws of Nature.  His "helicopter drop" threat is more likely to BLOW UP the bond market and then he can suck on his QE and choke on it.
He wants to buy junk? The market will feed him junk all day long. Good luck Benny. Your days are numbered.

 I like EWI's mention of the "slope of hope" in their update tonight. Its as if everyone knows that the economy is screwed and we are just playing a temporary end-of-summer game here...just like in summer 2008....reality to set in soon.  When exactly?  When the market can catch the most off guard I suppose.

More charts later and certainly this weekend when I have a chance to look at more stuff

E-minis



Thursday, August 26, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 August [Update 7:42PM]

[Update 7:42PM:

CPC is still tame considering P[1] and even pre-2007 top seen it go very high. Of course prices were much more bloated so it seemed a no-brainer then. Now its a bit more of a slog. Sooner or later though, if the market keeps falling, it'll be forced into submission.
BPSPX I made a target range for Minute [i]. Not sure how it'll work out but we'll go with it for now.
On gold we have some negative divergences peeking through after what could be a 5 wave move. Sentiment is fairly high on Gold.  And it is dealing with resistance. If its a Minor 2 expanded flat, we arguably have 5 waves for the [c] wave in place.
TLT is showing signs of perhaps cracking a bit (although the weekly looks strong).  Its overbought and Sentiment Trader did a big write up today on bonds and sentiment. Their conclusion was that it was very bullish (but not ridiculously extremely so) and that likely bonds will give back some of their gains sooner rather than later. I generally concur with that reasoning.

EWI will have a nice newsletter on bonds (and all debt) coming up soon from what I understand in their next Financial Forecast newsletter. If you haven't signed up for Club EWI (which is free), click my link to left. (Disclosure: If you then buy their newsletter after signing up for Club EWI via my link(s) I get a small commission when you buy any of their services.)

CMF looks weakish and accum seems flattish. Plus bear candle on volume.
Finally the dollar. Looks bullish.  We can guess on the waves for now but the trend seems up is all that matters.
Original Post:
Well the general count on things still seems to be working so we'll keep going with it.

The overall thing I keep in the forefront of my mind is that the market is likely trying to make it to a target area for Minute [i] of Minor 3. And using the general guideline that the first subwave one of a wave three wishes to try to advance prices, my suspicion is that therefore the target area is under 1010 SPX.

So we may have to adjust counts along the way as it has been a bumpy ride no doubt. But we should expect a bumpy ride. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/THWirvu01HI/AAAAAAAAHRs/bEQDiwrLN9k/s1600/spx60.png Sooner or later the market is likely to have another big downdraft day to help reach its target area, perhaps a wave (v).

Sentiment is starting to get fairly bearish in certain measures such as this week's release of the AAII survey but according to wave theory that bearishness will not result in a hard bounce until we have a firm 5 wave structure down (and very likely market oversold conditions)  in place forming Minute [i].  Then Minute [ii]'s job is to correct it all.

As long as the market prices stay inside this down channel, things are generally pointing downward.

And my blue box virgin wave space has held its ground and has not yet closed.
For an example, their could be an expanding triangle in the works. Naturally the last big e wave up will convince the bounce is here. But then it turns down. Then when the market hits bottom, sentiment again would be bearish - and it turns up. The market shakes all participants the most it can.

If we get some other pattern, then we'll have to adjust on the fly.

E-minis

Seems the market wants at least to get to the red line minimum.  Thats about 1070 SPX.  [EDIT: But as mentioned in comments, could be another whippy day with the jobs report in premarket. The gap close at 1065 SPX is the obvious short term goal of the bulls.]



Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 August [Update 7:25PM]

[Update 7:25PM: I think its one of those moments where getting caught up in the squiggles is going to be exacerbating at times for both bulls and bears.  I like to compare things to P[1] at stages.  And since the is P[3], things will not play the same. But there could be some very comparable moments.

For instance if we look at the time period in 2008 in which we map Minute [i] of Minor 3 of Intermediate (3), we find a similar looking fractal potentially in play.  This time period was all overlap of some degree or another. Yet there are some ways we can ultimately label the move.

And certainly the market kept working itself lower.

The key thing I think is that we have resistance overhead (which should eventually stop any rise) and a market that seems to want to work downward to an initial target area. I suspect that target area resides below 1010 SPX. As I said, 990 works for me for now because it resides at the larger H&S neckline.

I use the Wilshire for form. My only real point here, is that things can get awfully difficult to count sometimes. Yet in the end, the market will go where it must go. There is an awful lot of similarities between then and now, including the psychological ponderings if we had entered "recession". (i.e.- Double dip talk now)


We can also remember the psychology at the time in summer 2008 (which also came off of pretty good earnings in 2nd qtr) that we were not sure if we were entering a recession or not.  But of course we were.

I think chart patterns will help here also.  For instance the falling wedge and compressed prices warned that there would be a violent rebound in 2008 for Minute [ii].  We don't yet have compressed prices in the current market.

Of course the real danger to be a bull is that the computer-controlled market blows a fuze or two and runs out of control, to the downside of course...
So the current market has the same look.  We can see that black iv can go all the way to the dashed line and not "violate" any EW rules.

In the end I think its going to take a lot more bearish sentiment and pessimism to induce a big corrective bounce more than a few % in the market (ala 2008 Minute [ii] of 3). Are people getting bearish? Well of course they are and working themselves toward a short term extreme.   There is a transition going on and I just don't see that we are there yet for Minute [i] of minor 3.

It may need revamping and I must remind myself to be flexible here with the count - even if the gap down from yesterday closes solidly.
You figured the market was going to bounce at major support. Question is, will there be any follow-through?

The primary wave count suggests no, at least it shouldn't be much.  Although we could shoehorn the entire drop from 1129.24 to 1039.83 and call it a 5 wave move, it would be somewhat unsatisfying because the second leg almost exactly equals the first, which suggests (a)(b)(c) and not (i)(ii)(iii). So the primary count would require at least another wave down to under 1039.

The sharp rise was required to wash out some bearish sentiment. To get Jim Cramer back tooting the bull horn.  The H.O. is just too well publicized.

The "uncle" point for bears would be the wave (i) low of 1069.49. Wave (iv) cannot breach this. Realistically though, a wave (iv) shouldn't be near there...

Obviously a lot of eyes are on the unemployment report.  It would be supremely funny if somehow the report got a lot better this week, yet the market experiences a big selloff anyways.  So as you can see, its not the news that will determine things.

Bonds took a pretty nasty hit.  I guess everyone is under the delusion that a selloff in bonds will naturally mean an explosion in equities. I have my doubts.  But the ultimate theme of P[3] is that all assets, at key times in the wave structure, will selloff together.

Again, we'll slap a "four" up near here and see what happens.

E-minis

At major support. You can see why the algos/traders would buy the dip at this spot.

1044 On the cash index SPX represents the October 2008 bounce high after the crash in P[1].  The market has done well, remarkably for about a full year, to mostly remain above this marker. The market has deemed it important.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 August [Update 6:05PM]

[Update 6:05PM: The daily SPX certainly doesn't look bullish nor suggestive that anything is going to bounce from here. RSI is not oversold, MACD history keeps widening and even volume, (which I thought yesterday's smaller candle was today's until I realized I hadn't had updated data at the time)  is picking up to the downside. The ROC looks bearish and there are no positive divergences for the bulls to look for.

Selling takes no vacation!

At any rate, we can see the 990-993 Minute [i] minimum target looks good as it aligns with the larger H&S neckline using the April peak.
PRIMARY COUNT
The primary count has that today's gap down as the third of a third middle of Minute [i] of Minor 3.  In theory, it would be best if this virgin wave blue box area remained untouched until Minute [ii].   Using a Fib marker and placing it roughly in the middle of this virgin wave space, this projects Minute [i] low of just under 1000 SPX, perhaps the 993 area.

Certainly the opening was extremely one sided and after the housing report the down volume ratio jumped to over 70:1. Yet by end of day, things didn't look so gloomy.  I suppose thats the result of the low-volume dog days of August. Yet we have lower lows. EWI would call this "stair-stepping" down. And Minute [i] is the logical wave for that to happen.

So in the end, the market closed under pivot support of 1056 and broke under the sloping H&S neckline. The rebound today can certainly be seen to be "backtesting" the neckline.
Again, we'll just throw the count up there and see what happens.  Ironically the contrarian play is that the H&S plays out to its target to the downside. (Thats about how much respect H&S patterns get anymore)
We may need to adjust some subwaves depending on what happens.

30 Minute view:
TOP BULLISH ALTERNATE
The top (bullish) alternate is pattern of repeating fractals on smaller scale resulting in a complex wave (ii) - (or even [ii] if it turns out that way). This is a count I dreamed up on the way home tonight. If the gap down solidly closes, I'll be looking at this possibility.

Why if the gap down closes? Well the gap down today is supposed to be a breakaway gap. It started to breakaway but buyers gave the market some decent support after the housing report spasmodic thrust down which vaguely had the look of an exhaustion sell spike. (But perhaps it was just exhaustion on the day only)

Basically this is an idea of bulls taking the bears best shot and still standing. Breakaway gaps shouldn't be closing the day after it is created. Hence it wouldn't be a breakaway...

But the gap down today must close first, and until that happens, this is just a "gee-whiz" thing. The only reason I thought of it is because if its going to happen, this would be the spot with 8 low volume trading days left in the summer before post-Labor day volume comes back.
I'll have more charts later.

E-minis

Yet another wave down with very good impulsive qualities.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 August [Update 7PM]

[Update 7PM: Here is Consumer Metrics chart again showing the current consumer contraction (at least as far as how they track things). Via http://www.consumerindexes.com/

Now I probably overemphasized this website and chart(s) over the past few months but we have to look for  all the clues we can for the overall wave picture. 

And what does this chart potentially say? Well I look at it one way: Consumers are contracting and a contracting consumer is supportive of a contracting social mood.  Sure we still like to spend!  Yet, I was in a shopping center on Saturday and the food places were fairly busy yet Best Buy was virtually empty. They had a huge wall of glorious TV's on sale (including a 50 inch Panasonic Plasma for $588) yet the aisles were empty. 

Simply put, we have shifted our spending habits in a big way and oh, by the way, a good deal many of us are beyond broke.  Consumer credit? That manic peak is well past us. No more zero percent interest credit card offers with no transfer fee. If they offer a 0% transfer they often want 4-5% transaction fee!  And if your credit score even whiffs of subprime, you ain't even getting these misleading offers anyway. 

But again, what can we glean from this chart? Well, we can say that the downturn (this is year over year comparisons) is equivalent to the 2008 contraction event.

At the very least, this chart does not refute the primary count of a Minor 3 of (1) of P[3] down.  The current contraction event is longer already by far and we expect everything in P[3] to be more extreme. This so far, supports that notion.
[Update 6:27PM: There are a myriad of ways to gauge bullish/bearish sentiment. Taken collectively they all probably show a neutral state of bullishness which is probably about where we expect to be. In some ways its actually still very bullish.  

The BPSPX chart represents real money in action. So you can bleat all you want that people are too bearish but this chart does not agree with that statement. Is it extreme bullish? No, of course not, and a Minor wave 2 rebound is not expected to be as you can see where other previous Minor 2 highs have occurred. Actually this Minor 2 is the most "healthiest" rebound to date. 

So the BPSPX chart still shows more than half of S&P500 stocks in a bullish configuration. This is one of the best stand-alone sentiment indicators you can have I suppose.  

You can see there is much decline to look forward to if my Minor 3 target range is even remotely accurate. And it will take a real good price decline to get it that low. Technically, the RSI and MACD have been "correcting" since the beginning of June. Thats almost a full three months. They are both now on the verge of breaking their uptrend lines. 
The overall daily also shows the H&S target.  If the market meets this target, the BPSPX should reflect it. Again note that with the daily chart, once prices are under 1010 SPX, there really isn't a whole lot of trading (hence support) from there on down to lower 900's. Even if Minor 3 was to abruptly end at say, 865, its still a large decline from current prices.
Finally the dollar is also, "perfectly" setup for a big thrust upwards to coincide with a down move in equities.

So all in all, we have a perfect storm brewing.

Very aggressive, healthy opening followed by a quick reversal and worsening weakness throughout the day.

The primary count has the market on the verge of entering a third of a third wave of Minute [i] of Minor 3 down.

Can the light August volume delay this from occurring at least this week?  There are certainly alternate counts that could drag out sideways/down rather than a true "point of recognition" moment of intense selling. We'll find out.

If the market is not yet ready and still wishes to challenge prices higher, I would think 1086-1087 area is a target I have in sight and should present some resistance.

The SPX shows the basic count. Throw a subwave "ii" at the top of today's high and see what happens. Subwave ii retraced into my little blue box area and about 50% so it was certainly a decent enough subwave ii for sure. The ALTERNATE counts would suppose that the market is going to hold up in this area for a bit longer and the "third of a third" likely won't occur until next week.

E-minis

Friday, August 20, 2010

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 August [Update 4:41PM]

[Update 4:41PM: Forgot to show the head and shoulders pattern. Here is the hourly SPX.]
Impulsing down in 5 waves on the SPX and INDU.

Best count is that a third of a third is coming after this current correction is over.
Subwave i of (iii) did its job and advanced prices lower than (i). 

E-minis [Update 2:36PM]

[Update 2:36PM: Still kicking possible wave ii of (iii) counts around.  This would be about 1086-1087 on the SPX, perhaps Monday. Then wave (iii) down.]

[Update 12:10 PM: From a [5] = [1] standpoint, the SPX is pretty much there. As you can gather I don't entirely trust the SPX count as per my differing Wilshire count...

Well I have some errands and other stuff to do. Good luck today.]
[Update 12PM: I added some downside internals on this Wilshire.]
[Update 11:44AM: Down pressure is picking up again. Its not looking good for the wave ii bounce setup.  In fact, just the opposite may occur if this market cannot maintain support.  Now at the SPX 1065 "flash crash" May 6th candle low.

Its seems awfully complacent still and price action is somewhat reminiscent of the time right before the "flash crash"....

Its like everyone is looking around waiting for everyone else to provide the spike up
in prices....well it ain't happening yet]
[Update 10:52AM: Best count still suggests a wave ii bounce and considering its OPEX I guess many others see it this way too. Down pressure has eased.]
[Update 10:36PM: Various divergences between the indexes suggest a wave ii of (iii) bounce is coming once sellers are exhausted.]
[Update 10:20AM: An SPX squiggle count which is at the "must defend" 1065 pivot.  The count still suggests a wave ii back up.  MAX PAIN I think happens to be 1085ish?]

[Update 10:08AM: A variation on the revamped Wilshire squiggle count only if the bulls can get the market to go green today.  But again, there is still considerable downside pressure on the market.]
[Update 9:57AM Still considerable down pressure for market internals.
Working out a new squiggle count for the Wilshire to account for 5 waves up.
[Update 9AM: Current futures and a possible best count for now.
[Update 8:08 AM: Another corporation http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gap-tops-profit-estimates-unveils-buyback-2010-08-19?dist=beforebell with another useless share buyback which is always "cheered" by even mom and pop type retail.  It blows my mind how these corporations get away with it. Stock buybacks only really help the people who own a lot of the stock - i.e. the upper management crust.  Its using leverage in a back-door draining of a corporation's cash flow. The paradigm thinking that a stock buyback is "good" is 100% wrong in my opinion. Usually these stock buybacks occur when the share price is high(er) anyway (social mood in rebound or at a high).

But looking at the Gap's balance sheet, why are they using leverage to buy back shares when they have obvious debt on their books? Is this too simple a question to ask in an overly complicated financial world? GAP is no Apple... http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=GAP&annual

Another stupid thing: M&A for the sake of M&A: http://market-ticker.org/archives/2595-If-You-Have-Too-Much-Cash,-WASTE-SOME!.html

Corporations are leveraged to the hilt more than ever before.  A market crash will expose them for the frauds and stupidity and reckless greed that they engage in on a massive scale.  And we will bail them out. But of course we cannot bail them all out...

I am not against capitalism, I am for a healthy capitialism that punishes stupidity and weeds out the reckless. But this world is far beyond that.  When eventually nature's laws forces man's hand, we'll abandon all free market principles in the name of "social good". Which means you will become a subject of a more fascist world where only the connected are taken care of. Indeed we have already lurched down that road.

From bondage - to liberty - to apathy - and back to bondage is the life cycle of man.  When viewed through the lens of Elliott Wave theory, it all makes sense. We seem to be heading back to the bondage stage.

For if I seem to be an endless "cheerleader" for a market crash of mega-proportions, thats really not fair. I know what is likely to come - fascism, civil strife, and war - and that scares me a bit. What I do hope is that P[3], were it to happen,  will purge and punish the reckless criminals and expose the fraud.  But my hopes are not high in that regard. By the time that comes, the people who committed the biggest crimes will have floated away in their golden parachutes long ago aided and abetted by the current political class that is looking to do the same.

[Update 7:45AM: Stockharts always has a way of printing little gaps intra-day if price movement is very rapid. I notice that any rebounds (or dips) always seem to gravitate to cover these areas.  Opening day gaps of course are another animal but same principle.

Yesterday of course printed a pretty decent sized intra-day (breakaway - i.e. - a small point of recognition middle of the third wave) gap. Any hard rebound today - perhaps a wave ii of (iii) of [i] - (or early Monday) would perhaps gravitate to this gap at the 1087 area which is resistance.  That would be the ultimate pile on short spot if it makes it that high.
Futures impulsing down.

All the worries of a (very) bullish rebound on OPEX seem a bit unfounded for now (hey I'm short like many of you) seeing how futures have achieved a new low overnight and completed, at minimum, a nice impulse pattern down.