Trouble is, there is such short term variation potential, that a dominant pattern has yet to emerge. Price action has been stubborn yet not really bullish. Sentiment is stuck in neutral in many respects. Its a largely mixed picture and the market has responded in its usual schizophrenic fashion.
Will 1173 break down hard short term? I would't bet against it.
Will 1200+ again be attained short term? I wouldn't bet heavily against it. We are a bit in no man's land unless of course this kind of price action suits you as it does some.
So here we sit. The waves suggest that no matter the short term struggles, there is not yet any impulsiveness to the downside (nor upside obviously). So that suggests corrective waves. And taking the next logical EW theory step, an eventual new high above 1227 SPX.
So we'll throw some squiggle counts up there and see what sticks. It probably won't much matter as the MM's would just as likely break support or retake resistance in the usual manner - either running up futures or selling them off prior to the open. So we'll either look like geniuses or fools.
I could just as easily lean toward the downside with a differing count - double ZZ down from peak (and fulfill an H&S setup). New day of the month tomorrow. We'll again give the count the benefit of the doubt for the bulls.
I could see a H&S setup in here too with a downside target under support.
1. Major support (1170 area) is holding
2. Waves seems corrective in nature (supports Minor wave 4 count)
3. No impulsing down. (suggests that even if lower prices are coming here short term, it may still be considered Minor 4 as a primary count.)
4. NYAD count is holding well and may be near a bounce point (channel line)
So until something alters this picture, this is why we have a primary count of Minor 4.