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Tuesday, January 4, 2011

E-minis [Update 3PM]

[Update 3PM: Perhaps an (a) wave of Minute [iv] of Minor 5.]
[Update 10:27AM: Gold's count.  Last great dip buying opportunity? We have a clear stop.]
Two ways to draw a triangle yet they both imply the same moves so it doesn't matter at this point.  The key pivot is of course where the current [e] 4 is marked. It cannot break this or its not a triangle as drawn here.
Looking for a move down to form [iv] of Minor 5. If it is [iv] of 5, then the subwave (iv) price should hold in general. If prices break through (iv), then the Minor 5 wave up structure may be over. Thats about how I look at things short term.

On a side note:
Of course I have a bearish bias

It is a Ponzi after all. Funny thing is, not one person ever disagreed with me on that aspect that I can ever recall in comments. Think about that.  

First rule of Ponzis: They collapse quickly.
Second rule of Ponzis: There is an end point.  

Having that bias is simple math as Karl says. 

How quickly we forget the March 2009 low. It made so much sense to many then.  That is all forgotten as it should be I suppose. 

First rule of wave counting: The wave count pattern crystallizes usually near the end.
Second rule of wave counting: The end is when most abandon ship of the theory and howl the loudest.

Ok I made those rules up, but you get the point.

It goes to actually reinforce the basic tenets of wave theory: That financial markets are ruled by emotion always. The forces of rational and irrational are constantly at odds. 
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