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Monday, January 10, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 January [Update 6:25PM]

[Update 6:25PM: Here is an example of how a count can be counted 2 different ways and you get the same result.

Because of the potential for a one day or so triangle to "work" in either counts presented below, be on the lookout for it. Perhaps it will be more bearish or deeper (to make an overall larger descending triangle as shown here http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TSt3PmjbX1I/AAAAAAAAIbc/nsWnaCjR1Vw/s1600/wlsh10.png) but you get the idea. I drew it to coincide with riding an uptrend line from weeks back.  
Incidentally, a [w][x][y] zigzag-flat-triangle is exactly what I have wave-mapped for Minor 4. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TPbC4s-JcnI/AAAAAAAAIIc/rdTgtpjiXTQ/s1600/spx5.png

Below is an example of a double ZZ corrective with the last wave being a false trendline break.
[Update 5:45: The GDOW's technicals look bearish. A nice double negative divergence on the RSI and an MACD that looks like it wants to rollover.  
GDOW weekly also has a negative divergence and its not insignificant.  
This too is a significant double negative.
ORIGINAL POST
Still holding major support. The primary count is that Minute [iv] of Minor 5 of Intermediate (C) is fulfilling a wave pattern.   I adjusted the wave counts for the recent high to be actually the Minute [iii] high. We have several options for Minute [iv]. 1) combination corrective  zigzag-flat-triangle (or another flat)  2) descending triangle  3) double ZZ down.

The Wilshire 10 minute shows the combination and descending triangle options:
The NDX may be an ED in the works which leads me to pause on things.  If the NDX is in a true ED, a rapid price collapse back to beneath where the ED started should follow which has me wondering how things will shake out overall for the market in general. We have seen these apparent ED's not pan (and not be ED's and form something else) out but you should be aware.

A triangle followed by an ending diagonal triangle is a very bearish combination that occurred on the SPX and DJIA in January of 2010.  A rapid price retreat followed.  We may have the same occurring on the NDX.
Again the Wilshire hourly. The only thing required to fulfill Minute [v] is a new high price.
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