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Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 January [Update 8:00PM]

[Update 8PM: 
EXTENDED PRIMARY WAVE FIVES
Ok check these next two charts presented below and compare. I would like to discuss extended wave fives of primary degree. Of course as you know, I have my NYAD count as an extended primary wave [v] of cycle V degree. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TS4dfkVbX6I/AAAAAAAAIdI/4tiVb_V2_tk/s1600/nyadweekly.png

I can find one other great example of a primary wave [v] of a cycle V extension from what I can tell. And that would be my Global Dow weekly chart.  

I have many notes on each so no need to duplicate my thoughts too much here. I would like to point out that you can see what happened to the GDOW when the extended wave [5] broke the uptrend line to the downside. It retraced back to its previous wave [4]! If the NYAD does the same, well, thats a lot of points down no doubt.

Also note the same trendline hits in each! Beginning, Wave (4) and 2 and 4 of (5).

Here is what Prechter says about 5th wave extensions in "Elliott Wave Principle": "Fifth wave extensions imply dramatic reversal ahead." (His italics, not mine) This I suspect because the waves are forcefully  advancing to the point of sheer exhaustion with very little pause the entire 5 primary waves.  These extended fifths are very tight affairs on the way up. Steady, purposeful and seemingly never-ending. But they must end and they do end. Its like climbing Everest. You make it to the top but the path back down can be deadly. 

I present the charts, you decide:
GDOW EXTENDED FIFTH PRIMARY
NYAD PROPOSED EXTENDED FIFTH PRIMARY
[Update 6:55 PM: Taking a crack at mapping Minute [v] down to the 1 minute squiggles reveals some likely options.]
[Update 4:54PM: Check out the Price-Volume-Trend (PVT) indicator on the lower half of this DJIA chart. Diverging with price since the January 2010 high for the past 1 year. And now approaching the trendline.] 
ORIGINAL POST
Today confirmed that indeed wave [v] appears to have started as I suggested in last night's update. It seems to be a wave five event as up/down volume ratio (4.85) and advancers/decliners (2.86) was a more muted affair.

SPX charts:
Wilshire charts also show some very powerful potential Fib relationships

Wave (C) is almost .618 of (A) and within (C), wave 5 is nearly equal to wave 1.
10 minute
Hourly
NYAD count has enough waves now. It is a very satisfying pattern.
Weekly is, for all practical purposes, a touch on the upper channel line.  It too has a very satisfying wave structure.
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